This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Feb. 19, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the threat of U.S. strikes in Iran, U.S. Supreme Court opinions, Indian Prime Minister Nardendra Modi visiting Israel, an International Criminal Court hearing against former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, and the European Parliament voting on a trade pact with the U.S. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

US-Iran talks

Interview featuring Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the ongoing situation between the US and Iran. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Middle East and Africa coverage, Ahmed Namatalla.

JIMMY: Hello, Ahmed, 

AHMED: Hi, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Thanks for the time today. We've got a lot to get into here so let's just dive in. It feels precarious, however, to even discuss the situation between the US and Iran, considering how fast things could change. But alas, here we are. Can you start us off by giving us a bit of a recap on what's been going down recently?

AHMED: The most significant recent development is the talks between Iran and the United States. Be it, they are indirect, but they are still happening in Switzerland, where representatives of both administrations are meeting through mediators to decide if there's a way out of what appears to be an impending military conflict. The US has moved massive military assets to the region – this sort of build up we simply have not seen in years – while Iran has refused to back down from its positions, that it will not give up its nuclear programs, nor its ballistic missile programs. And without either side really backing off its positions, it's hard to see where the two can meet.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? There been any new developments?

AHMED: Well, Iran's foreign minister did say that there's progress being made. He made a vague statement regarding agreement on “guidelines” for the talks. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance went in the opposite direction, saying that Iran has yet to meet any of President Trump's “red lines,” without really specifying what those red lines are. Like I said, at this point it's just hard to see what common ground both of those parties can meet on, since neither has made any sign that they're willing to back down from their demands. The US says it wants Iran to dismantle and completely give up its nuclear program, which, by the way, President Trump said that same nuclear program was “obliterated” when the US attacked last June. Obviously, it was not. Meanwhile, Iran says, maintains, that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and maintains that it has the right to maintain that program.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions to all this have you seen?

AHMED: In the Middle East, it's really hard to gauge reactions outside of the state of Israel, which, by all accounts, continues to push for an attack on Iran, which it views as a threat, not only on its nuclear program, but on its ballistic missiles program. Outside of Israel, Arab countries have publicly stated their opposition to war, but you could see how Iran's foes would like to see it diminish in power one way or another. One of those is Saudi Arabia, and there have been reports in US media that Saudi Arabia has been quietly wanting to see some sort of military action against Iran, even though it publicly opposes it. Iran, meanwhile, has hinted at using its alliances with Russia and China if such a war were to break out, although there have been no public declarations of support by those countries. It's worth noting that in the midst of all this, Iran will be carrying out naval exercises with a visiting Russian military delegation on Thursday.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

AHMED: I think the most important thing that we need to be watching for is the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, that's where you see the biggest impact really taking place if military conflict were to break out. Iran has threatened to close the Strait, the passageway for the vast majority of Gulf, Persian Gulf, oil exports to the world. In fact, over the weekend, they carried out military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz that shut it down for several hours. Iranian state media then framed this as a practice run at closing down the Strait. So this would have a significant impact on the global economy, global oil prices. The US, meanwhile, has continued to threaten attack, and we've seen reports in US media that something like what has played out around Venezuela may take place in the shape of a blockade on Iran. That would also be an escalatory move that could trigger war. All we can see right now is a massive military buildup – both sides getting dug in. And one can only speculate that, really, the talks in Geneva may find, you know, common ground, you know it is possible that they could agree to delay or slow down uranium enrichment, but that's not being said publicly. What is being said publicly points to a possible war in the near future.

JIMMY: Well, Ahmed, we're going to have to pause there for today, but I've got no doubts we'll likely be discussing this again on a future episode. But until then, thank you so much for your time and insight. Appreciate you.

AHMED: Thank you, Jimmy.

US Supreme Court schedules opinion day

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The U.S. Supreme Court will render opinions on some cases tomorrow.

Friday will mark the first of three anticipated days in which America’s high court will render opinions.

We’re also expecting them on Feb. 24 and 25 

As you may recall, the court has already delivered some opinions this year, including prominent rulings that allowed Texas and California to move ahead with partisan congressional maps.

Now, while the court does not announce ahead of time which cases it will issue opinions on, observers are closely watching for a landmark decision to come down regarding tariffs. 

The crux of the case concerns President Donald Trump invoking emergency powers to place wide-ranging tariffs on imports from around the world. 

Were the court to rule against the Trump administration, wide swathes of his signature tariffs would be invalidated, marking a significant legal defeat. 

Trump, however, had said his administration will seek further legal mechanisms to keep the tariffs in place should the court rule against him.

India’s Modi visits Israel

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Israel on Sunday.

Modi first visited Israel in 2017, the first ever visit by an Indian prime minister to the Jewish state. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke the news of the upcoming visit last week in Jerusalem at the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organisations. 

While Modi’s agenda is still unclear, Israeli media has since reported the visit is expected to be short and will include an address at the Knesset.

Now, members of the Indian parliament criticized the way the visit was announced, saying they were finding out about the government's decisions from foreign leaders. 

Some protests have also erupted after the news broke, with pro-Palestinian rallies organized across several cities, including Mumbai and Delhi. 

Considering Modi’s visit comes after both countries signed a landmark deal on defense, industrial and technological cooperation in November, further deals could be struck during this meeting.

ICC hearing on charges against former Philippines president

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: The International Criminal Court will hear evidence Monday against former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to ascertain whether the case against him will go to trial. 

Duterte was arrested last March on a warrant issued by the ICC for alleged crimes against humanity in the context of a war on drugs campaign. 

Duterte’s alleged crimes include extrajudicial killings while he was mayor of Davao and later president of the Philippines. 

A UN report released in 2020 found that more than 8,600 people were killed between 2016 and 2020 during a government campaign against illegal drugs. 

Duterte is accused of criminal responsibility for these crimes via indirectly committing them, and for having “aided, abetted or otherwise assisted” them.

Now, the hearing is set to be held before three judges to evaluate whether the evidence is sufficient to try Duterte before the ICC. 

The hearing will not determine Duterte’s guilt and he can challenge the charges through his legal team. 

Should the evidence against Duterte be deemed sufficient, the court will issue a written decision within 60 days and the case will go to trial.

European Parliament to vote on trade pact with the US

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: The European Parliament’s trade committee is expected to vote on a controversial deal with the United States on Tuesday.

The formal vote follows months of negotiations between political groups in parliament. 

The approval process was blocked last month after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to take over Greenland. 

The agreement, once formally approved, will entail U.S. tariffs at 15 percent on EU exports, while the EU has signalled it would cut its tariffs on U.S. goods to zero.

Now, if passed, the agreement will then move to a plenary vote in March, and only then the bill would become law. 

Until then, further negotiations between institutions are expected, as a number of provisions are up for debate. 

Parliament’s version currently includes safeguard mechanisms such as the reintroduction of tariffs on U.S. goods if the United States does not reduce its own tariffs to the agreed 15 percent. 

The parliament’s president has signaled that, while the trade deal is “urgent”, lawmakers are “open, but not naive” and the agreement needs to be grounded in “mutual trust, understanding and respect.”

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Jess Fino and Michael Archer. Our interview featured editor Ahmed Namatalla and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe