This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Feb. 26, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the cartel violence in Mexico, Senate primaries in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas, the annual meetings of China's top legislative and political advisory bodies, a Japanese court ruling on the Unification Church dissolution, and the start of the Paralympic Games in Italy. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

El Mencho killed in Mexico 

Interview featuring Alex Moore

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the violence that broke out in Mexico following the killing of a cartel head. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Alex Moore.

JIMMY: Hello, Alex.

ALEX: Hello, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Pretty crazy situation in Mexico earlier this week, hoping you can give us a bit of a recap on it. So what exactly went down?

ALEX: Yeah, on Sunday morning, in the Jalisco region, the Mexican military launched an operation that ultimately ended up killing – it was intended to initially capture, but ended up killing – a guy whose alias was “El Mencho”, who was the founder and leader of the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación, which was inarguably one of the two most powerful cartels, if not the most powerful cartel, in Mexico. And in the almost immediate aftermath of the killing of El Mencho, in the shootout, we saw the erection of blockades, which are kind of colloquially known locally as narcobloqueos, which kind of immediately popped up in major cities in Jalisco like Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, but kind of metastasized to around 20 other regions as well across the country. So a lot of the coverage was regarding, kind of, the aftermath in that regard, where there were, you know, tourists in Puerto Vallarta that were stranded because of the, kind of, chaos surrounding transport to the airport. Some airlines canceled flights. The US Embassy issued, kind of, a shelter-in-place order that has since been largely lifted. But yeah, pretty chaotic aftermath. And since then, there have been dozens of people killed, including more than two dozen Mexican National Guard soldiers in, you know, retaliatory hits attributed to CJNG, mostly kind of in their power base of Michoacan and Jalisco. But yes, certainly a major, major, one of the most major developments in, kind of, the cartel sphere in a long time, certainly since “El Mayo”, one of the two leaders of the Sinaloa cartel was arrested.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? There been any new developments?

ALEX: Yeah, kind of like the scale and scope of the narcobloqueos has died down in recent days. It is not as geographically dispersed as it was on Sunday, but the situation remains extremely, extremely tense, still. You know, you're seeing daily shootouts between the Mexican state and the CJNG. Once again, mainly in, kind of, the power bases of the CJNG, which are Jalisco and the bordering Michoacan region. But the CJNG, you know, they rapidly, rapidly expanded throughout Mexico in the 2010s on the back of extremely depraved levels of violence. And this is even, you know, relative to other major players in the cartel space, such as Sinaloa, even kind of, you know, their hyperviolent, heavily armed forbearers, which in some ways are the Los Zetas. You know, the CJNG is extremely heavily armed. They have a professionalized military wing. They use armored vehicles. They use FPV drones. And that is kind of how they've been able to enforce their empire, which has expanded aggressively into the space of other cartels. That's how they co-op local "plazas" and keep them in line. So the dispersion of the narcobloqueos  across Mexico on Sunday kind of underscores that strength and how nationwide it is. Kind of like an apt comparison would be the two separate attempts to capture Ovidio Guzman, one of the children of “El Chapo”, in Culiacan, both in 2019, which failed ultimately, and 2023, where the Sinaloa Cartel, the “Los Chapitos”, they, you know, turned Culiacan into a war zone, but it was more or less largely confined to the state of Sinaloa and mostly Culiacan itself, whereas these were truly nationwide narcobloqueos, you know, as far south as the border, states like Chiapas, up in Tamaulipas and the Texas border, so kind of underscores the vast reach of the CJNG. But yeah, I mean, at this point, a lot of the hits have become more localized to, again, their bases of power that are Jalisco and Michoacan.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions have you seen to all this? 

ALEX: Yeah, I mean, kind of notably, in the Mexican military's readout of what took place in Jalisco on Sunday, they kind of explicitly stated, yeah, this was done in conjunction with US – they didn't outright say intelligence, if I recall, but they said, you know, informational cooperation with the US, which kind of tracks with reports that over the past month or so, the US has set up kind of an interagency intelligence task force strictly related to anti-cartel stuff, which kind of tracks with what Mexican President Sheinbaum has kind of made the centerpiece of her anti-cartel strategy, which is streamlining Mexico City's intelligence collection capabilities. And this operation to get Mencho is kind of indicative of that. I mean, El Mencho was truly a ghost for years and years. I mean, he was, for almost a decade, seemingly now, he's been reportedly deathly ill, and there were multiple reports that he died, but nobody had seen him. Nobody had heard anything, right? And this operation was reportedly conducted via information gleaned from a, you know, like a lover or a, you know, romantic acquaintance of El Mencho's that reportedly led to this taking place. So you know, if we'd see the two countries kind of streamlining intelligence capabilities in that regard, that is very fascinating. I think the timing of it ties in both to increasing intelligence collection capabilities and also just the very heavy pressure that President Trump's been putting on Sheinbaum to do more about the cartels. You know, he himself, obviously, has repeatedly threatened to launch drone strikes, things of that nature on, cartels; obviously doing legal things like designating them as terror groups, which increases the capability of the US intelligence apparatus to act toward them. But the timing, obviously, you know, it's hard to ignore the fact that the World Cup is coming up in a few months, which will, in part, be hosted in Mexico. So the timing of that, I think, is notable.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

ALEX: I guess, first and foremost, obviously, I think I mentioned earlier that El Mencho for years was reportedly very sick. Assuming that's the case, the CJNG almost certainly planned ahead for this. But that said, you know, obviously, when the heads of cartels are decapitated, more often than not, that leads to intra-cartel instability. So I guess in kind of the near term -- basically, I think we've seen, and I expect to continue, an extreme uptick in violence in the wake of the killing of El Mencho. The areas for escalation kind of point in multiple directions. So the first one is, as I've kind of alluded to, is kind of intra-CJNG infighting or factional splitting, kind of akin to what we've seen happen with the Sinaloa Cartel over the past few years. After, you know, El Chapo was extradited. El Mayo was extradited. It's created a civil war within the Sinaloa Cartel, which has led to an extreme uptick in violence in Sinaloa. There's, of course, the possibility that that could happen with the CJNG. Reportedly, they've already named a successor. That's very unconfirmed, but, you know, it remains to be seen, of course, if the local plazas that make up, you know, the CJNG’s vast network of power are going to respect that. Further, this could lead to, you know, more inter-cartel fighting. You know, the Sinaloa Cartel is the main rival of the CJNG. There are also more local rivals in places like Michoacan, like “Los Viagras.” If those cartels deem the CJNG weak, they could potentially try to move on local plazas. The CJNG could try to preempt that with a show of force. So the avenues for escalation are kind of right, and point multiple directions here. And then the third one, of course, that we’ve very much seen happen over the past few days is an uptick in violence between the Mexican state and the CJNG, which I kind of expect to very much continue. And lastly, it's just kind of worth noting that we really should not expect this, whatsoever, to leave kind of a, you know, meaningful dent in the CJNG’s capacity to traffic narcotics and synthetic opioids into the US market and elsewhere. They obviously export to Asia. They export to Europe. Historically, these sorts of operations to decapitate cartel leadership had little to no bearing on their ability to conduct their day-to-day businesses in that regard.

JIMMY: Well, Alex, we'll have to pause there for today, but thanks so much for your time, and thanks for getting us all caught up. Appreciate you. 

ALEX: Yeah, no problem.

Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas Senate primaries

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Voters are set to go to the polls across three states Tuesday for the first primary elections of 2026.

Polls will open in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas on March 3 ahead of November elections expected to determine control of the U.S. Senate. 

Early voting has so far outpaced recent past elections in at least parts of all three states. 

In Texas, Democrats have come out in numbers amid a competitive race between U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico. 

On the Republican side, polling shows a tight race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt also in the mix.

Now, assuming no run-off elections are necessary, results from Tuesday’s vote will determine who will appear on ballots in each respective state come November, when Senate elections are scheduled to be held. 

Democrats are hoping to flip North Carolina, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the senate in nearly two decades, and have hopes for flipping Texas, as well. 

In Arkansas, both Democrats and Republicans have been focused on challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton. 

In order to take back control of the Senate, Democrats would need to flip four seats.

China’s annual “Two Sessions”

Information compiled by Clara Ip Wai Nam

JIMMY: China’s top political advisory body is scheduled to open its annual session in Beijing on Wednesday.

The Chinese legislature will begin its session the following day.

The 2026 meetings come at the start of a new policy cycle, after the Communist Party leadership approved a draft framework for 2026 to 2030 in October. 

More details are expected to be released through the March legislative process. 

In the run-up to the meetings, three lawmakers tied to the defense, aerospace and nuclear sectors were removed in early February, amid a broader anti-corruption push.

Now, the National People’s Congress is widely viewed as mainly endorsing policies already set by the Communist Party leadership.

Still, the Two Sessions remain one of Beijing’s most important annual signaling events for domestic policy, economic targets and political messaging. 

Analysts will be watching for the 2026 growth target, policy language on consumption support versus industrial policy and tech self-reliance, and any further cues on personnel, anti-corruption priorities, national security and military modernization.

Japan court to rule on Unification Church dissolution request

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Also on Wednesday, Japan’s Tokyo High Court will decide whether to back a lower court’s order for the controversial “Moonies” church to disband. 

Officially the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, the Unification Church was founded by Sun Myung Moon in South Korea and campaigns for anti-communism and the unification of North and South Korea. 

The religious movement derived from Christianity reportedly has millions of followers around the world, with an established presence in Japan since the 1960s. 

The group is often criticized for “brainwashing” followers into making huge donations and holding mass weddings for couples paired by the church. 

The Unification Church drew substantial public outrage after its ties with Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party came to light following the investigation into the assasination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. 

In March 2025, a court ordered the disbandment of the church after the education ministry accused the church of using manipulative fundraising and recruitment tactics.

Now, if the high court upholds the dissolution order, liquidation procedures will begin regardless of whether the group decides to appeal. 

The Unification Church would lose its status as a religious corporation, which means it can only continue its activities as a voluntary organization and would no longer be eligible for tax exemption.

Paralympic Games begin

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: The Paralympic Winter Games will begin next Friday.

With the Olympic Games now concluded, Italy’s Milan-Cortina will host the Paralympics as this year marks their 50th anniversary.

At least 600 athletes from 50 different delegations will compete across six sports at the Games. 

The opening ceremony will take place at Arena di Verona, marking the first Paralympic ceremony to be held at a UNESCO World Heritage site. 

The closing ceremony on March 15 will be held at Cortina Curling Stadium.

Now, Ukraine’s sports minister has signalled the country will not attend the opening ceremony as the Russian flag and the national anthem are expected to return after not being able to participate for several years following the Ukraine invasion. 

The Dutch Olympic Committee has also said it won’t attend the opening if the Russian or Belarusian flag is shown or if their national anthems are played. 

Despite these boycott threats, the International Paralympic Committee has said the decision to allow 10 combined slots for Russian and Belarussian athletes “cannot be overturned.”

JIMMY: One final note for you, the podcast will be off next week so our next episode will be out March 12. 

In the meantime, we are a 24/7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on Bluesky, Threads or Mastodon where we’ll still be posting breaking news.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Theresa Seiger, Clara Ip Wai Nam, Hua Hsieh and Jess Fino. Our interview featured editor Alex Moore and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2026 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe