This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is March 12.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the Iran war, Kazakhstan voting on a new constitution, an election in Vietnam, trade negotiators from the U.S. and Mexico meeting, and a European Council Summit in Brussels. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Iran war

Interview featuring Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the Iran war. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Middle East and Africa coverage, Ahmed Namatalla.

JIMMY: Hi, Ahmed. 

AHMED: Hello, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Ahmed, we're close to two weeks into this war, and it seems like it's time to give you the impossible task of bringing us up to speed in under 15 minutes. So, what's been going on?

AHMED: Jimmy, the war has escalated significantly as we approach the two week mark, and that is happening even as the US is claiming that it has already won. We heard President Trump declare that most recently on Wednesday afternoon at a rally, and it's something that he's repeated, that Iran's military is destroyed – air force, naval and land. It's a claim that has simply proven to be not true, so far. We are seeing strikes all around the Middle East with different parties fighting each other, sometimes not even necessarily the US. This has really developed into as much of a regional war as one could have imagined one becoming.

JIMMY: And what about some of the latest developments you're seeing?

AHMED: So as we speak, there are Iranian strikes on fuel depots, most recently in Bahrain. Over the past 24 hours, fuel depots have been hit in the country of Oman, fuel tankers off in the Persian Gulf, off the coast of Iraq, Iran has also struck a famous hotel in Dubai just this evening, or it actually would be Thursday morning in Dubai. We are seeing Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq operate against US assets In northern Iraq around Erbil, Sulaymaniyah as well. We're seeing them also target energy infrastructure in other parts around the region, namely, the Gulf. Saudi Arabia continues to report intercepting, most recently, they had reported intercepting 18 drones in one attack in the eastern region, and you know, targeting their oil fields in that area. US spaces in Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and UAE have all been struck and suffered damage to some degree. Meanwhile, Israel continues to strike Iran, but is also striking Lebanon quite heavily. And we're not just talking about Southern Lebanon, they are striking, repeatedly, Beirut, and not just the southern part of Beirut, where Hezbollah is known to have its stronghold – main Beirut proper. Just now, there was a strike on a beach in Beirut, which Lebanese officials are reporting six people killed. That brings me to the human toll in all of this. And Iran has reported more than 1,200 of its people killed. The death toll for US soldiers is at eight, and yesterday, after US media reported that about 150 US soldiers have been injured, the government came out with confirmation of that. We're seeing civilians on the ground killed and injured in traditionally safe Gulf countries – multiple people have been killed in Kuwait, and Bahrain, in the United Arab Emirates. Israel has also seen civilian deaths. This has spiraled into a significant moment, and it would appear that it's not going to wrap up soon. As I say this, we're seeing divergent views of what's happening. The US appears to be looking for an exit with the Trump administration claiming victory, while today, Iran's president demanded that not only the US and Israel stop their attacks on his country, but he's demanding reparations. He also demanded, in a post, that Iran has guarantees to not have future attacks on its soil. It is really continuing to escalate, and it will be hard to predict at this point how this conflict would wrap up.

JIMMY: Well, I know this question could be a whole separate podcast by itself, but what sort of reactions have you seen to all this?

AHMED: It's been interesting to see how, first of all, Gulf Arab countries are handling this. We are seeing a marked shift in how these governments are handling the war. So for example, Dubai, which was for a few days clamping down quite heavily on  information. It would -- they didn't even report if a strike took place, and they were arresting people, and they may still be arresting people, for disclosing that information. But today, for the first time, we saw Dubai's government announce a strike and even provide a picture of the tower that was hit that allowed news media to identify it. And in the initial announcement of the strike, they actually announced the location as well. Saudi Arabia has moved to a broader system of alerts, where they're now announcing their potential attack alerts on social media. So we've seen both of those governments become more open about what's happening on their territory. This was already the case in Bahrain and Kuwait, which weren't really trying to suppress information. On the opposite side, we see Israel engaging in more suppression of information. Before the war started, it was -- already military censorship already banned disclosure of where attacks were happening. A lot of times, Israeli media would only report that an attack took place, and they would – it would either be the North, Center or Southern regions of Israel, without even specifying a city. Israel has gone beyond that, clamping down even more and banning live coverage of any attacks on the ground. So while we see how regional governments are managing all of this, we're also seeing the spread of misinformation, sometimes disinformation, and it's not only coming from Iran's side. Iran, they have, on occasion, spread information that is just not factual. And we've seen them post old videos, videos of strikes in other locations, and claim, for example, that they've taken place in Tel Aviv. Those are verifiably false. We're not just seeing that from them. We're seeing false information coming out of the US administration as well. Just simple claim of victory when the Strait of Hormuz is is safe to pass through – that is verifiably false. Ships are simply not going through the Strait of Hormuz. It remains closed. Iran's navy, it is not destroyed, as the US claims, and we see that in the attacks that are happening on these ships over the past 24 hours.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AHMED: Unfortunately, I think we need to be watching for continued expansion of this conflict. As chaotic as it has gotten, there's so much more that can happen that can make it worse. In addition to the disruption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, we could be looking at a food crisis as fertilizer supplies that come out of the Gulf are blocked. We have not seen all of Iran's allies come on board into this war, and many analysts are wondering why have the Houthis of Yemen -- this is a militant group that is allied in with Iran -- they have yet to formally step in and help their ally. Iran has a lot of targets that it could go after, and they have threatened to go after specific targets. Today, they threatened economic hubs in the Middle East, and we saw reports in international media of banks evacuating their offices in Dubai and other cities around the Gulf. We've seen water desalination plants get hit in an area that relies on them. We have not looked at the UAE nuclear program, which is operational now, and there's speculation that that could be targeted as well. There is so much that could go wrong, and the worry is, if the sides that are involved are not talking, then the worst of what could happen may, in fact, come true. There are significant dates coming up that I think we should watch out for. A lot of Iranians, and the Iranian government, subscribe to a strict interpretation of Shia Islam. The 40th day following the assassination of Iran's leader is going to be a significant one, as is the case in Shiite Islam. Israel's national day is also coming up in April. There's so much that can go wrong in these next few weeks, and it's up to the parties that are involved to at least start talks if this conflict is to resolve without further destruction.

JIMMY: Well, Ahmed, unfortunately, this is where we need to pause for the week, but as always, I thank you so much for your time, keeping such a close eye on things, and I suspect we'll be talking again here in the coming weeks, if things don't cool. But, I appreciate you. Thanks for your time. 

AHMED: Thank you, Jimmy.

Kazakhstan referendum on new constitution

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Kazakhstan will vote on a new constitution Sunday. 

It includes a consolidation of presidential powers and a transition to a unicameral parliament.

The initiative to overhaul Kazakhstan’s constitution, adopted in 1995, began this past September when President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed dismantling the country’s two chamber parliament. 

The new draft constitution was presented at the end of January and proposed changes to approximately 80 percent of the current constitution. 

It includes a bolstering of presidential powers.

That includes allowing the head of state to appoint heads of the Supreme Court, Central Electoral Commission and the State Security Service as well as other institutions. 

The new constitution would also abolish the senate and create a unicameral parliament, consisting of 145 deputies.

Now, backers of the new document say it will modernize Kazakhstan and allow for legislation to be passed more efficiently.

Critics, however, argue it curtails minority rights and gives Tokayev the opportunity to potentially run in the next presidential election after his term ends in 2029. 

Vietnam National Assembly election

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Vietnam will hold elections on Sunday.

Two votes are scheduled to take place: the election of 500 deputies in the National Assembly, picked from 182 electoral posts around the country, and local state representatives, known as People’s Councils at provincial and commune levels.

Now, the runup to Vietnam’s election has been marred by some controversies. 

Local media has reported that in some constituencies, both high-ranking officials and their staff are running for the same parliamentary seats. 

What’s more, 177 candidates were denied from running for the assembly elections. 

Their names and reasons for exclusion were not disclosed. 

The votes come just after the Communist Party re-appointed To Lam as its general ⁠secretary, extending his position for the next five years. 

Review of USMCA begins

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Negotiators from the U.S. and Mexico will meet Monday.

That, ahead of a joint review later this year of the free trade agreement between the two countries and Canada.

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, went into effect in 2020.

It replaced the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement. 

U.S. President Donald Trump, who was in his first term when he signed on to the deal, at the time touted the move as the “largest, most significant, modern, and balanced trade agreement in history.” 

Canada and Mexico are set to begin bilateral talks in May, while all three involved countries are scheduled to conduct a joint review of the deal by July 1. 

Now, the upcoming meetings are part of reviews scheduled to take place every six years under the terms of the USMCA. 

Earlier this week, Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said that a majority of the country’s economic sectors support renewing the deal.

Still, he said respondents asked for improvements likely to be discussed during the upcoming review. 

The agreement is set to expire after 16 years unless the U.S., Mexico and Canada agree to continue it for another 16-year term. 

Since Trump began his second term in office, the deal has somewhat protected both Mexico and Canada from Trump’s tariffs.

European Council Summit in Brussels

Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: Leaders of European Union countries will meet next Thursday in Brussels.

They’ll attempt to coordinate a unified response to several ongoing global situations. 

The slated agenda is wide-ranging — including the ongoing war in Ukraine, economic and financial matters, migration, and “other items” — but the elephant in the room is the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

The conflict has already grown to include European soil proper, as an Iranian drone managed to evade air defenses and strike a U.K. Royal Air Force base in the territory of EU member Cyprus. 

Now, Iranian strikes on oil infrastructure in Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait have seen all three countries declare force majeure, almost instantaneously creating a supply crisis. 

To address demand, U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly considered easing sanctions on Russian oil, potentially undermining one of the EU’s strongest levers for exerting pressure on Moscow. 

Germany, Italy, and Belgium have already hosted a virtual mini-conference on the topic ahead of the summit. 

Finally, Reuters has also reported that leaders will request reform of the EU carbon market to address price volatility.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors James Morgan, Jess Fino, Theresa Seiger and Matthew Hipolito. Our interview featured editor Ahmed Namatalla and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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