This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is March 19, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the DHS shutdown, Eid coming amid war in the Middle East, elections in Slovenia and Denmark, and FIFA qualifiers in Mexico. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

DHS shutdown

Interview featuring Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at partial shutdown affecting the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. For more on that I’ve got Factal Senior Editor Joe Veyera.

JIMMY: Hi, Joe.

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. How's it going?

JIMMY: It goes well! Thanks for your time today. This DHS situation sure seems to be dragging on. I'm hoping you can get us all caught up on things in somewhere between five minutes and two-to-three hours. So, what's happening?

JOE: Well, I'll try to make it brief. You may remember that there was a brief partial shutdown at the end of January and the first few days of February, in the wake of the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti by ICE agents in Minneapolis – an earlier funding agreement kind of fell apart. Ultimately, there was a two week stopgap funding measure for the Department of Homeland Security that ultimately led nowhere, and the shutdown began in earnest on February 14. The impasse here is around immigration enforcement, but the funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act continues to cover those operations. So the elements being impacted here are the TSA, the Coast Guard, and FEMA. TSA agents got a partial paycheck in February, and now they've missed their first full paycheck as of last Friday. The active Coast Guard members are continuing to get paid through the use of discretionary funding, while civilian workers are going unpaid. And in total, it's about 100,000 federal workers that are currently going without.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

JOE: Well, the White House has reportedly offered some minor concessions this week, including an increase in body cam funding for officers and a commitment to limit what they're calling “civil immigration enforcement activities” at certain sensitive locations – places like schools and hospitals. World Cup preparations have also been impacted, and today, nominee for DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullen told, in his confirmation hearing, that it would take about four months to get new workers completely up to speed. And if you look at the calendar, we're less than four months out from the start of the World Cup. But finally, the biggest development here is the impact we're seeing on the TSA. More than 350 agents had left the force as of Tuesday of this week, and we're seeing a huge increase in the number of “call outs” at airports across the country. DHS says they jumped more than 50% in Houston and 30% in New Orleans and Atlanta on Sunday and Monday, and the highest single day call out rate of 55% over at Houston Hobby Airport on Saturday. Obviously, when you have this number of employees not showing up for work, that's going to lead to longer wait times at airports.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions have you seen to all this? 

JOE: Well, some have hoped that the ousting of now-former Secretary Kristi Noem for Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullen, pending Senate approval, can help end the impasse. But on a similar note, New York Sen. Chuck Schumer said the White House has “got to get serious,” because there's been no movement on the two main demands from Democrats -- that's preventing federal agents from entering private property without judicial warrants and banning them from wearing face masks. So, no movement from the White House on those two issues.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, I know you can't predict the future, but what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

JOE: The big thing here is if the White House and Democrats can actually reach a funding deal, obviously. There's no signs that the two sides are particularly close at this point. Any movement from either end is promising, but it doesn't look like there's been that significant breakthrough that's actually going to lead to a deal and a vote. Now, if there is no funding deal anytime soon, how much worse does the situation get at U.S. airports? An acting deputy TSA administrator has made the media rounds over the past few days, and they've warned of potential shutdowns at smaller airports due to a lack of staffing. TSA agent training takes four-to-six months, so even once we reach the point where this shutdown ends, the backfilling for new hires and getting them up to speed on the job could have longer term impacts.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, we'll have to pause there for today, but thanks again for your time and keeping such a close eye on things for us. Appreciate it.

JOE: Anytime, Jimmy.

Eid al-Fitr amid war

Information compiled by Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Muslims across most of the Middle East will celebrate their biggest holiday marking the end of Ramadan tomorrow. 

That is, with restrictions due to the escalating war between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran. 

Iran will mark the holiday on Saturday as its military and civilian death tolls mount.

The war is approaching the three-week mark with devastating attacks on high-profile energy infrastructure in Iran and Persian Gulf nations.

We’re also seeing continued Israeli-U.S. assassinations of Iranian leaders and vows from all sides to retaliate more forcefully. 

Expansion of hostilities is also seen in Iraq, where oil facilities and U.S. assets are under daily assault. 

Iran also cut off vital natural-gas supplies to Iraq after its South Pars gas field was struck on Wednesday. 

Even countries not directly involved in the conflict, like Egypt, are starting to restrict electricity consumption due to the energy shortage and price shock.

Now, Arab Gulf countries are limiting the traditional morning outdoor prayers involving tens of thousands of people at some locations.

Many are being relocated to mosques and other indoor facilities due to daily Iranian attacks. 

Other restrictions include bans on playing with fireworks and drones, in addition to war-related restrictions on photography that may be deemed counter to national security.

Those restrictions have landed hundreds of people in jail. 

Meanwhile, in Israel, authorities continue to restrict Palestinians’ access to Al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem. 

And Iranian missiles targeting Israel are causing more widespread damage and disruption, including in Tel Aviv, due to the apparent use of larger cluster munitions.

Slovenia election

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: Slovenians will choose a new parliament during elections on Sunday.

Since the last election cycle in 2022, a coalition composed of the Freedom Movement party, Social Democrats and the Left has governed the country. 

The current government has faced several scandals in the subsequent years, including accusations leveled against Prime Minister Robert Golob of unlawful pressure on the interior ministry and corruption. 

The Slovenian parliament also passed a controversial bill granting expanded policing powers viewed by human rights organizations as targeting the Roma community.

Now, the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party has surged in popularity since 2024. 

Led by Janez Jansa, the party has aligned itself with figures such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary, but has long been a staunch supporter of Ukraine. 

Several Slovenian investigative journalists have also published a report linking recent scandals to former Israeli intelligence officers who allegedly met with Jansa in late 2025. 

Sunday’s election will determine the composition of Slovenia’s 90-seat National Assembly as well as the future political direction of the country.

Danish election

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Denmark will hold its general elections on Wednesday.

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called early snap elections last month, more than a half-year before she was due to call general elections for parliament. 

The entire composition of Denmark’s parliament will be voted upon, including the two seats allotted respectively to its territories of Greenland and the Faroe Islands.

Now, Frederiksen’s decision to trigger early elections is in part related to her surging popularity among Danes – a surge coinciding with her hardline position amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s persistent threats to violate Danish sovereignty and forcefully annex Greenland. 

In her speech announcing the vote, Frederiksen emphasized the need for Denmark and Europe to continue to stand together against security threats, whether from Russia or the United States, signalling the issue would continue to be on the forefront of electoral topics. 

Frederiksen and her Social Democrats’ main rival will be Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen of the center-right Venstre. Still, some experts believe the Social Democrats will perform well and prolong Frederiksen’s rule as prime minister, which dates back to 2019.

FIFA qualifiers in Mexico

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Six soccer teams are set to face off in Mexico next Thursday to determine who will take two of the six spots remaining for the 2026 World Cup.

The FIFA Play-Off Tournament will begin March 26, with four teams squaring off at stadiums in Guadalajara and Monterrey before finals slated for the 31st. 

New Caledonia is set to take on Jamaica at Guadalajara Stadium next Thursday, while Bolivia will face Suriname at Monterrey Stadium. 

The winners will go on to play the DR Congo team in Guadalajara or the Iraqi side in Monterrey. 

The teams that come out victorious will go on to join this summer’s competition.

Now, the World Cup kicks off June 11, when Mexico and South Africa compete in Mexico City. 

In an analysis released last year, FIFA estimated that the event could generate $80.1 billion in global gross output, including $30.5 billion in the United States. 

Still, potential impacts remain uncertain in the months leading up to the World Cup as the country grapples with an international tourism slump that began last year. 

Analysts believe the games will have a limited impact on Mexico’s economy, while Canadian officials estimated that matches would generate over $2 billion in economic activity across the country.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Ahmed Namatalla, Michael Archer, Alex Moore, and Theresa Seiger. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe