This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is April 2, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Ukrainian drones in Baltic airspace, elections in the Maldives, US Vice President Vance visiting Hungary, an election in Djibouti, and a new parliament in Slovenia. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Ukrainian drones violate Baltic airspace

Interview featuring James Morgan

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at the recent drone violations reported across the Baltic states and in Finland. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Europe coverage, James Morgan.

JIMMY: Hello, James, 

JAMES: Hey. 

JIMMY: Thanks for your time this morning. Hoping you can get us up to speed on the situation with these drones and the Baltics. So let's just jump in. What's been going on?

JAMES: Okay, so effectively, these drone violations that have been recorded in the Baltic states and also in Finland are the products of a Ukrainian strike campaign against Russian oil and gas infrastructure in Leningrad region. And effectively, over the past week, Ukraine has been conducting this campaign across Leningrad region, and we've seen a lot of eyewitness footage and a lot of reports coming out of local officials in that area of Russia, detailing damage to oil and gas infrastructure and to port infrastructure. The main target that we've seen emerge is Russia's port infrastructure in the Ust-Luga region, or area, of Leningrad region. And on the Russian side, we've seen the governor of Leningrad region essentially saying that dozens of drones have been intercepted over a number of nights. And this particular regional official has even conceded some damage to infrastructure in that area of Russia, which is quite rare. Normally the Russians very much downplay the impact that drone strikes have on this kind of infrastructure. And where this affects the Baltic states is that during some of these attacks, some drones have veered off course and strayed into Baltic airspace, and this is either due to jamming efforts by the Russian military or to malfunctions, and they found their way into Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian airspace, as well as Finnish airspace more recently. And there have also been some crashes recorded on the territory of the Baltic states and in Finland, and in a few cases, there have been explosions. It's worth mentioning that, so far, there have been no injuries recorded and there's been no major damage to infrastructure. There was one particularly salient instance last week where a drone actually struck a chimney of a power plant in a town called Auvere in Estonia, which is about an hour and a half drive – I was just looking at it on Google Maps earlier today – it's about an hour and a half drive away from Ust-Luga, the port that was struck in the Leningrad region. So that gives you an idea of the proximity that we're dealing with here. And this is very much a result of overflow. There are a lot of drones flying in the direction of these areas in Leningrad region, and some of them are veering off course and straying into the Baltic territories and Finland.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

JAMES: So this has very much been a continuation over the past week. And over the weekend, we saw more attacks and drones spotted in Finland and Estonia. Today, the very latest, so to speak, there's an operation ongoing in a place called Parikkala, in Finland, where a drone came down on the ice of a lake close to a town there. There have been a couple of evacuations and the Finnish authorities have told local media that they believe that the drone had a warhead attached to it when it came down. So obviously this caused some consternation in the local area, and obviously they took precautions. And as I said before, a couple of buildings were evacuated in the area, and I believe a no fly zone was declared over the top of Parikkala as well.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions have you seen all this?

JAMES: So it's been an interesting one. The most recent, if we start with the most recent, I would say, is that the Ukrainian foreign ministry has actually come out and issued a public apology to the Baltic states, saying that none of these drones that have been identified by the Baltic states and Finland as Ukrainian are sent intentionally into the airspace of the Baltic countries and into the airspace of Finland. The foreign ministry of Ukraine has also said that they conducted an investigation, and they found that some of the drones, as I mentioned before, strayed off course and veered into the airspace of the Baltic countries because they were targeted by Russian electronic warfare systems. It's worth mentioning as well that the foreign ministry has also apologized to the Finnish. And in terms of reaction from the Baltic states, as I said, there has been some disruption caused by the airspace violations on Tuesday morning, so yesterday morning. The Estonians detected, I think, around 10 drones in their airspace, and that caused disruption to at least two passenger flights and fighter jets were scrambled as well. And the Baltic states have been slightly muted in their reaction. I think because it was known that these attacks on Leningrad region were ongoing on Russia's oil and gas infrastructure. The immediate suspicion was always that the drones that crashed or came into their airspace were Ukrainian ones, and they're pretty quick to identify them as Ukrainian. Obviously their reaction would be somewhat different if they were found to be Russian drones violating the airspace of NATO countries. But generally, the message from the Baltics has been that Ukraine needs to be more forthcoming with the intelligence it shares. If they know that they've got drones heading in that direction or potentially veering off course and straying into the Baltic airspace, they need to be communicating that so that adequate measures can be taken on the side of the Baltic states.

JIMMY: Well, considering all this, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

JAMES: So I think in terms of what to look for going forward, the purpose of this new drone strike campaign on oil and gas infrastructure in Leningrad region appears to be Ukrainians attempting to curtail any possible windfall profits from the export sale of Russian oil off the back of increased prices because of what Israel and the US are doing in Iran at the moment. And although it's quite difficult to judge the full extent of the damage that has been caused in the Leningrad region, I read a really interesting piece last week by Reuters that was citing market data that was saying that cumulatively, the seizure of Russian tankers and these Ukrainian strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in Russia have knocked out around 40% of Russian oil export capacity, which is a huge number. So I think going forward, we could potentially regard -- I mean, it's wrong to say that this strike campaign is a success, but obviously it seems to be having an effect, if we're to believe those numbers that Reuters were reporting. So I think there's going to be more of where that came from, to put it bluntly. And I think the more drone activity that we see hitting that region, the Leningrad region in Russia, the more likely we are to see spillover affecting the Baltic countries and Finland. And mostly these drones have been spotted in remote areas, but obviously, the greater the drone activity, the more likely it is, the greater the risk that, inadvertently, one of these drones will hit infrastructure and cause real world harm, essentially. So I think, expect more of this going forward in the near future. At the moment, the Baltic countries haven't really told Ukraine to stop, and they've just said, please be more forthcoming with the intelligence that you're sharing.

JIMMY: Well, James, this seems like a good place to pause for the week, but thank you so much for your time. Always appreciate you having on here with the insight in the region. 

JAMES: Thanks very much.

Maldives elections and referendum

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: The Maldives will hold elections on Sunday. 

According to the country’s election commission, more than 294,000 registered voters in 226 constituencies across the country will go to the polls which will decide their local council representatives for the next five years. 

Also on the ballots are the Women's Development Committees and a referendum on whether to hold future presidential and parliamentary elections concurrently.

Now, while supporters of the upcoming referendum say holding concurrent elections can cut costs and improve voter turnout, those against it question its impact on accountability and the balance of power. 

Critics argue voters may be more inclined to vote for the same party in presidential and parliamentary elections if they are held simultaneously. 

The current Maldives government was criticized by the opposition expressing similar concerns after pushing through amendments restricting the powers of local councils in August last year. 

JD Vance visits Hungary ahead of election

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: U.S. Vice President JD Vence is expected to visit Hungary on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The trip comes just a few days before Hungary holds general elections on April 12, where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces strong competition from Peter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza party. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has so far pledged support to Orbán, saying in a social post last month he was a “truly strong and powerful Leader, with a proven track record of delivering phenomenal results.”

Now, recent polls suggest the opposition party is gaining support while Orban’s party is somewhat slowing down, despite many voters still being undecided. 

The results of this election could bring a shift to the country’s relationship with the European Union and the rest of the world, either securing continuation of a far-right leadership or a move toward a more center-right government. 

It is unclear if Vance’s visit will sway voters.

Djibouti election

Information compiled by Clara Ip Wai Nam

JIMMY: Djibouti will hold a presidential election next Friday.

President Ismail Omar Guelleh is seeking a sixth term after authorities opened nominations in early March.

He’s been in power since 1999, and is running again after Djibouti’s National Assembly removed the presidential age cap in October. 

His only rival is Mohamed Farah Samatar of the Unified Democratic Center, which holds no parliamentary seats. 

Guelleh won the last presidential election in 2021 with 97 percent of the vote.

Now, Guelleh is expected to return to office. 

The broader significance, however, is political rather than electoral, with democracy-tracking and policy analysis groups saying opposition parties operate in a tightly constrained environment. 

Accordingly, the main things to watch for ahead of election day are any opposition criticism or isolated tensions. 

The vote also matters beyond Djibouti because the country sits at the southern entrance to the Red Sea near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. 

Djibouti also hosts foreign military bases including those of the United States, China and France, giving it outsized strategic importance.

New Slovenia parliament inaugurated

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: The newly elected parliament of Slovenia will hold its inaugural session next Friday.

In last month’s parliamentary election, outgoing Prime Minister Robert Golob’s liberal Freedom Movement (GS) won a tight victory of 29 seats.

That was just barely ahead of populist Janez Jansa’s right-leaning Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) that took 28 seats. 

The vote came amid allegations of foreign interference in the election over a reported meeting between an Israeli private spy firm and the SDS. 

Authorities have opened a probe into the case while Jansa has denied any wrongdoings. 

With the close result, the two major parties will need to talk to smaller parties to secure a working majority in the 90-seat parliament.

Now, according to reports, Golob launched coalition talks last week, attended by all parties with parliamentary seats, including the anti-establishment Resni.ca and a conservative party formed by former Jansa ally Anze Logar. 

Golob said those in the meeting had agreed to cooperate in preparing intervention measures to protect the economy in the wake of conflict in the Middle East. 

The constitution of the new parliament and the coalition will be crucial to the country’s direction in the next four years and whether Slovenia will continue its liberal and pro-European policies or shift towards the right.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Hua Hsieh, Jess Fino and Clara Ip Wai Nam. Our interview featured editor James Morgan and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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