This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is April 9, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got deadly floods in Afghanistan and Pakistan, elections in Peru and Benin, meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and a major strike impacting the Los Angeles Unified School District.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Afghanistan & Pakistan floods

Interview featuring Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the flooding that’s killed dozens of people in Afghanistan and Pakistan. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Awais Ahmad.

JIMMY: Hello, Awais. 

AWAIS: Hi Jimmy, thanks for having me. 

JIMMY: Thanks for your time today. Looking forward to knowing more about the flooding situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. What can you tell us about it? 

AWAIS: So, flooding has impacted Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan for the past few weeks, and it has left dozens of people killed in both of the countries. It is worse in Afghanistan than it is in Pakistan. In Pakistan, it's mainly affecting the northwestern regions, especially the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, but it has, over the past couple of weeks, also spread out into other provinces, especially Punjab. In Afghanistan, more than 6,000 families have been affected, and over 200 miles of roads have been destroyed, and this is all due to weather-related incidents. And, due to poor infrastructure, aid remains limited, and roads still remain blocked. And then in Pakistan, urban flooding is continuing in many cities, including the provincial capital of Peshawar, which saw over 200 water rescues over the past few days, and of course, also widespread damage to homes and other infrastructure. There was also flooding in Karachi, which is in Sindh, but that is separate from the system that's been affecting the northwestern region. The flooding in Karachi was also pretty fatal and left a lot of destruction as well.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? You seen any new developments?

AWAIS: So, flooding is continuing across both of the countries, especially in Afghanistan, where local authorities have warned of continued risk of heavy rainfall and landslides. One of the main highways connecting Jalalabad, which is the capital of the province Nangarhar with Kabul, has been blocked for a couple of weeks, but it has been reopened as of Wednesday, but the threat of landslides and flooding still remains. And in Pakistan, we are also seeing a risk of GLOF, which are glacial lake overburst flood, which are sudden floods that happen when a lake formed by melting glacier suddenly bursts, and we're seeing that risk through at least Friday, and that is in part caused by a warmer than usual winter that we've seen in the region.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all the destruction have you seen? 

AWAIS: I think one of the biggest reactions that we've seen is the lack of quick and sufficient aid that has been able to be provided in Afghanistan, that is in part caused by a ban on women in the workforce, which impedes the ability of international aid agencies to provide the assistance that is needed. And in Pakistan, we're still seeing water rescues happening, like I mentioned in Peshawar, with meteorological officials watching closely for any further developments in the weather.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AWAIS: Well, we're definitely looking out for more flooding. Meteorological officials in both countries have warned of continued heavy rains, especially in Afghanistan. And then, like I mentioned, the GLOF phenomenon, the glacial lake overburst flood, is definitely something that we're likely to see in northwestern regions of Pakistan, especially as we head into even warmer weather. Pakistan's already recorded above normal rainfall for this time of the year, so that is only going to persist as we head into May and June, which is when the summer monsoon season officially starts. And yeah, I think severe weather has already left these communities pretty vulnerable due to poor infrastructure and then also regional stability – Pakistan and Afghanistan, not too long ago, were exchanging cross-border strikes. And then there's also economic hardships that have been worsened by the US war in Iran. So these communities that were already left pretty vulnerable are definitely seeing more of the impact from these floods. So as, in the next couple of weeks, we're likely to see more impacts, including waterborne diseases that are pretty common post-flooding, because, like I mentioned, there's poor infrastructure, so a lot of the time these flood waters just end up standing and malaria or Dengue fever form out of there, so we're likely to see an uptick in those cases as well.

JIMMY: Well, Awais, this seems like a good place to stop for the week, but thank you so much for your time and for keeping such a close eye on things for us. I appreciate it.

AWAIS: Of course, Jimmy, was good to be here.

Peruvian general election

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Peru will hold a general election Sunday.

Voters will choose the country’s eighth president in ten years after a period of political turmoil.

The race includes 35 candidates.

The presidency has seen rapid turnover in recent years.

Former President Pedro Castillo was removed in 2022 over an alleged coup attempt and later sentenced to prison.

He was replaced by the highly unpopular Dina Boluarte.

She was removed from office last October over allegations of money laundering and abuse of office.

Her successor, Jose Jeri, was then removed and replaced just this February.

Now, each leadership change has fueled public anger over corruption and rising crime, with protests against Boluarte and Jeri turning deadly.

Right-wing candidates championing law and order are now leading in the polls, but no candidate is expected to secure a clear first-round majority.

A runoff between the top two candidates is expected on June 7.

The next president is due to take office on July 28.

Benin presidential election

Information compiled by Clara Ip Wai Nam

JIMMY: Benin will hold a presidential election Sunday.

The vote will mark the country’s first transfer of executive power in a decade, as President Patrice Talon steps down after ten years in office.

The election comes after the main opposition figure was excluded from the ballot.

The Constitutional Court rejected Renaud Agbodjo’s candidacy over endorsement requirements.

The vote also follows recent constitutional changes.

These changes extended presidential terms from five to seven years and created a new senate expected to include former heads of state and presidential appointees.

The campaign is also unfolding in the shadow of a failed coup attempt in December.

At the time, elements of the military briefly appeared on state television to announce Talon’s removal, before the government said control was restored with help from regional allies.

Now, if no candidate secures an absolute majority, a runoff is scheduled for May 10.

First-round results are expected April 17.

Ruling-camp candidate Romuald Wadagni is widely seen as the favorite, so the main thing to watch will be on whether the opposition’s exclusion fuels criticism or unrest.

Any unusual military activity or signs of instability would also draw close attention.

Finally, the next president is expected to face a growing jihadist threat in the north – a security challenge Reuters has called one of the defining issues of the campaign.

IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in DC

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: The annual Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will begin Monday in Washington, D.C.

The week-long series of events will bring together world leaders, central bankers and civil society representatives.

They are expected to discuss the state of the global economy, as it faces the fallout from the ongoing war in Iran.

The IMF has warned the conflict has added volatility to oil and gas markets, tightened financial conditions and driven up the cost of essential commodities.

The war and its economic impact will certainly be a central focus of the meetings, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has threatened global supply chains and energy markets.

During the meetings, the IMF and World Bank are expected to work on coordinating international responses.

They have also signaled they could provide financial support where needed.

LAUSD teacher and service workers union strike

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: A major Los Angeles Unified School District strike may begin on Tuesday.

Three major unions representing tens of thousands of teachers, staff members and administrators announced their intent to strike after more than a year of contract negotiations with the school district. 

Employees are seeking more funds for resources and higher wages. 

School district officials have acknowledged the rising cost of living and offered increases, though they fell short of those demanded by workers.

Now, if the strike happens, officials have warned it would be impossible to keep all campuses open. 

That would impact hundreds of thousands of people in the nation’s second-largest school district. 

Those who may go on strike include teachers, counselors, custodians, nurses, food service workers, bus drivers and more. 

It remains unclear how long the strike might last, with disruptions possible for state testing and college-admissions assessments.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Vivian Wang, Clara Ip Wai Nam, Jess Fino, and Theresa Seiger. Our interview featured editor Awais Ahmad and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe