This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is April 16, 2026.

In this week’s Forecast we’ve got the Iran blockade, air traffic controllers striking in Spain, an election in Bulgaria, Trump’s tariff refund tool going live, and a redistricting referendum in Virginia. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Iran blockade

Interview featuring Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the US blockade of Iran’s ports. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Ahmed Namatalla.

JIMMY Hello. Ahmed, 

AHMED: Hi, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Thanks for your time today. Looking forward to learning more about the Iran blockade. What can you tell us about it?

AHMED: Well, this week, the US started blocking access to all Iranian seaports, and no one else. So, the US is saying that it's using its military to allow ships to come and go via the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran continues to block, but only from other ports – so mainly Iraq and Gulf Arab Gulf countries. Iran, meanwhile, continues to block the Strait of Hormuz. So effectively, nothing has changed. There is no traffic – almost no traffic – going through the strait. Oil continues to remain on the west side of the strait, and markets remain starved. So we're seeing shortages that continue to impact the world and increases in energy prices. None of that has really – has really changed. Now, this is happening as authorities from the US and Iran are still negotiating through Pakistan to hold a second round of talks after the first round failed to reach a resolution.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

AHMED: A second round of talks is possible. That's all we know, and the White House said as much this morning. Iran continues to say that a second round is possible, so does the mediator Pakistan. Nothing has been set. If a second round happens, presumably, both sides are going to be willing, or more willing, to move on their demands in the first round, which would mean a change in the status quo. So it's worth noting that both sides continue to hold leverage here. No side is getting entirely what it wants. So, for example, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, despite the US's overwhelming military superiority. It's not willing to make more of a move to reopen the strait, because that would put its own troops and its allies in the Gulf at further risk of Iranian attacks. On the other hand, Iran is not getting all it wants. Israel continues to bomb Lebanon, and that was a precondition for these talks to start and for the ceasefire to take hold. Israel has only stopped bombing Beirut, but remains very active in southern Lebanon, and has in fact, escalated its attacks on southern Lebanon over the last few days. So both sides do hold leverage against each other, and it's unclear what each side is willing to give to find a resolution to this war. It's worth noting that the uranium issue is one topic that looks closest, if any of them are, to a resolution. It looks like Iran is willing to negotiate, and the US is willing to negotiate on how much, if any, Iranian uranium stockpiles are to be surrendered, how much Iran would agree to suspend uranium enrichment for, in terms of number of years. Those are issues that reputable US and Iranian media outlets have reported on. The issue of Lebanon, though, remains one that is not likely to be agreed upon anytime soon, as well as other demands that are coming from both the US and Iran.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to all this? Has there been any threats of retaliation or anything?

AHMED: Well, to start with the two sides involved, yes, their rhetoric remains one of threats of escalation, regardless of how likely they are to follow up on those threats. But yes, the US continues to say that we're ready to strike Iran again. Iran continues to threaten to not just resume attacks on the US and its Gulf allies, but with respect to the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade, Iran's military has, I think this was just recently, threatened to, well, use force to prevent Arab Gulf countries from exporting their petroleum products through the strait. It should be noted that, so far, none of those threats have materialized, and that is probably thanks to the ceasefire that remains in place, but that expires in just a couple of days, and we'll see what happens after that. Outside of those two sides, the most notable reaction is coming from China, which benefits directly from Iranian oil exports, and Iran's ability to transport that oil through the Gulf of Oman and around to China on board of tankers. The verified information that we have indicates that no Iranian oil ships have been able to make that trip. Iran says that one of its ships was able to make it through, that remains unverified, and the US maintains that its blockade has worked to 100% success rate. It's hard to verify information from both sides at this point in time. You know, past the Strait of Hormuz, the sea opens up in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, and it's a much harder area to patrol and blockade. So the next few days will be critical to see whether the US and Iran can come on terms to finally end this war.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AHMED: Well, all indications are the war will not be restarting imminently. The reason I say that is because we're seeing indications of – just a return to normalcy around Arab Gulf countries that we would not be seeing if they had an indication from US troops that are inside their territory that the war was going to be resuming soon. So, for example, the UAE is -- UAE's government announced today that they're going to reopen schools next week. Qatar's airline that had moved dozens of its planes outside of the region, is returning some of those planes to the airport in Doha. The US has lifted its shelter in place for government employees at its embassies in UAE. So - oh, one more, we saw a major financial firm today announce that they will be opening an office in Abu Dhabi. The Gulf simply cannot afford for this war to continue, because it -- the damage that has been inflicted there is very high. We're talking about tens of billions of dollars and years to rebuild. That -- the Gulf also hosts those US bases, and one could reason that the Gulf has a lot of influence over what the US does next with respect to this war. What we should be looking for is the terms that are going to finally end this conflict, and it's just not clear right now who's going to give in and how those two governments will announce an end to this war in a way that keeps them both not just in power, but ready to face the challenges ahead. So in Iran, after this war ends, it has a lot of rebuilding to do and a public discontent to deal with that was already surfacing before the war. In the US, midterms are coming up.

JIMMY: Well Ahmed, that seems like a good place to stop for this week, but appreciate your time. Always appreciate your efforts in keeping a close eye on the region for us. 

AHMED: Thank you, Jimmy.

Spain air traffic controllers strike

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: A strike by air traffic controllers in Spain is set to begin on Friday.

Controllers at 14 airports are planning an indefinite walkout after unions filed notice earlier this month.

Spain’s Air Traffic Controllers’ Union and Workers’ Commissions say the action comes after failed efforts to start negotiations with the air navigation company Saerco, with some meetings postponed or canceled.

Now, the unions are calling for more staffing, better rest periods and improved working conditions.

They’ve also cited safety concerns, saying workers are facing excessive workloads and last-minute shift changes.

The strike is expected to disrupt travel across Spain, with the Canary Islands being the most affected area.

Bulgaria parliamentary elections

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Bulgarians are set to vote in a parliamentary election on Sunday.

It will be the country’s eighth parliamentary election in five years, as concerns grow over possible Russian interference and influence campaigns.

The previous government resigned in December after weeks of protests over tax hikes and frustration with widespread corruption.

That government had been in power for less than a year.

In the run-up to the vote, officials have engaged in a nationwide crackdown on voter fraud, detaining more than 200 people.

They have also called on the European Union for support in countering Russian meddling.

Bulgaria’s political system has faced years of instability, with multiple coalition governments failing to hold power since 2021 when the government of the right-wing party GERB collapsed after a decade in power.

The GERB party is currently polling in second place.

Leading the polls is the new Progressive Bulgaria coalition led by former left-leaning President Rumen Radev.

That coalition unites left-leaning parties Our People Movement, Social ​Democratic ⁠Party, and political movement Social Democrats and is expected to poach the pro-Russian nationalist vote from smaller parties such as Revival and the Bulgarian Socialist Party.

Trump tariff refund tool will go live

Information compiled by Dre Grant

JIMMY: A system to issue tariff refunds in the U.S. is set to go live on Monday.

Customs and Border Protection says it will begin the first phase of returning duties to importers after a Supreme Court ruling in February struck down tariffs President Donald Trump introduced using emergency powers.

Following that decision, a federal trade court ordered $165 billion in refunds for duties collected under the policy.

In this first phase, it will focus on more recent and straightforward import entries.

More complex and earlier entries will be handled later, as officials continue building out the system.

Now, the issue has also drawn political attention.

New York’s governor filed a lawsuit in March demanding refunds on behalf of importers and consumers.

Governors in California, Illinois and Massachusetts have also called for payments to reach consumers.

Still, CNBC’s CFO Council quarterly survey found that only 12 of 25 executives surveyed said they planned to apply for refunds. 

Six said they don’t plan to pass any portion of the possible refunds back to customers.

Regardless, what could result from all this is the largest repayment by the U.S. government in its history.

Virginia’s redistricting referendum

Information compiled by Clara Ip Wai Nam

JIMMY: Virginia voters are set to decide on a redistricting referendum on Tuesday.

The proposal would amend the state’s constitution to temporarily give lawmakers the power to redraw the congressional map before 2031 in limited circumstances.

The current map was created in 2021 by a bipartisan commission made up of lawmakers and citizens, split evenly between Republicans and Democrats.

The push for change comes after several Republican-led states, including Texas, Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina, advanced mid-decade redistricting plans expected to help Republicans.

The referendum has faced legal challenges from Republican lawmakers.

Lower courts blocked it at different stages, but the Virginia Supreme Court allowed the referendum to move forward while it continues reviewing the case.

Now, the outcome could have national implications.

Democrats need only a small number of gains to retake control of the House.

If voters reject the measure, the current map will remain in place.

But if it passes, a new map could be drawn that may improve Democrats’ chances in several Republican-held districts.

That makes the referendum important not just as a state constitutional vote, but as part of the broader fight over control of the U.S. House.

JIMMY: One final note for you, the podcast will be off next week. So, our next episode will be out on April 30. 

In the meantime, we are a 24/7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on Bluesky, Threads or Mastodon where we’ll still be posting breaking news.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Michael Archer, James Morgan, Dre Grant, and Clara Ip Wai Nam. Our interview featured editor Ahmed Namatalla and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe