This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is April 30, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got militant attacks in Mali, the UAE leaving OPEC, South Korea’s plan for nuclear-powered submarines, local elections in the U.K., and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Leaders’ Summit in the Philippines. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Mali rebel offensive

Interview featuring Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent militant attacks in West Africa’s Mali. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Owen Bonertz.

JIMMY: Hello, Owen. 

OWEN: Hi, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Owen, I know you've been tracking this situation in Mali pretty carefully this last week, hoping you can get us up to speed on the situation. So, you know, what's happening?

OWEN: Yeah, so beginning on Saturday morning, a combined rebel coalition of the JNIM, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, and the FLA, the Front de libération de l'Azawad, – these are two rebel groups active in the country of Mali – started a series of offensives, basically in all the major population centers. That included greater Bamako, as well as the city of Kidal in the north, and the cities of Sévaré and Mopti as well. And this has probably added up to the most significant fighting that the country has seen since 2012. In particular, it's notable how much fighting has been taking place in greater Bamako. Insurgency has been a fact of life in Mali for, really, the past decade, but very rarely does it directly touch Bamako, especially as it did on Saturday morning when a car bomb was detonated in the, sort of, wealthy government worker enclave of Bamako, known as Kati, outside of the home of Minister of Defense Sadio Camara. And it took about 48 hours for the government of Mali to formally acknowledge that Camara was killed in this attack, but he was, and according to some rumors, other members of the senior Malian military brass were. So beyond that, the rebels in the north -- Bamako is quite far south in Mali – but in the north, the Rebels have actually been taking territory, including the city of Kidal, which they actually held from 2012 to 2023, but they have retaken it after a three-year period of Malian government control. And these rebel groups are continuing to move further and further south.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

OWEN: Yeah, in the past three or four days, as I mentioned, the fighting has continued to push south. We're looking at battles in cities like Gourma, and the city of Tessit was confirmed to have fallen to the rebels. It looks like the rebels are pushing for the city of Timbuktu, which is, of course, a major tourist destination, and also kind of the primary city of Mali's north. If they were to take that, it would represent, kind of, the most territory that this Tuareg separatist FLA rebel movement has ever held, or at least since 2012. In 2012, this Tuareg movement, which was under a different name, but kind of had the same goals, took about the top 60% of the country until the French intervened in a military operation called Operation Serval and very quickly, kind of, pushed them out of the cities and into more rural areas. But the insurgency has stayed active and is now coming back in a big way. And it's particularly notable this time around that the more secular Tuareg separatist FLA rebels have directly formed a coalition and an alliance with JNIM. JNIM are al-Qaida affiliated. In fact, they used to be known as al-Qaida in Islamic Maghreb, but more recently, they've actually kind of been taking steps to distance themselves from al-Qaida. Some people have compared this to maybe the actions of HTS in Syria before the 2024 Syrian Revolution, when HTS kind of moderated themselves in anticipation of taking control of the government so that they wouldn't face as much backlash from the rest of The world after seizing power. So we're looking at a slightly moderated JNIM, but still one that is very Islamist in nature, working with these Tuareg rebels, who exist not just in Mali, but also in southern Algeria, and in Libya, and Niger. And I should also note that JNIM themselves are a transnational organization. They have extensive resources in Burkina Faso. They've actually carried out more attacks in Burkina Faso in the past five years, as well as Western Niger. And none of this is even mentioning the fact that Islamic State Sahel Province control territory kind of in the center of the country, and they have reportedly been trying to seize upon the chaos and take control of a few additional villages as well.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen all this?

OWEN: So the Western embassies have predictably been telling their citizens to either shelter in place or leave the country as as soon as possible. The probably most notable international actor in Mali right now is the Russians. They are directly supporting the Malian government. That used to be under the umbrella of the Wagner Group, but after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in Russia in 2023, and the absorption of Wagner group into the main Russian Ministry of Defense, these troops are now called Africa Corps. And Africa Corps have kind of taken it on the chin over the past week. They reportedly had one of their helicopters downed during fighting with FLA in the city of Kidal, and they've repeatedly withdrew from positions in the north. So Russia has, of course, you know, reaffirmed their support for Mali and said that we're going to keep fighting on behalf of them, but there have been leaks within the Malian government saying that the Malian officials are not exactly happy with the level of support that Russia is providing them, and they feel that these Africa Corps troops are kind of collapsing more quickly than they should.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

OWEN: Yeah, so I think that the presence of Africa Corps moving forward is not guaranteed. Obviously, the Russians have bigger fish to fry in Ukraine, and their deployment to Mali is not exactly profitable, even if Mali is going into debt in order to keep them there. One thing that has kind of been consistent in Mali over the past year has been fuel shortages and supply shortages and JNIM blockades on the roads. These have only gotten worse. JNIM have even said as much, that they have declared kind of like a complete blockade of Bamako. This is not really reality. There are still trucks managing to get through, especially ones that are escorted by Russian and Malian troops. But nevertheless, if you were to try to fill up your gas tank in Bamako right now, you would probably have a difficult time. And on top of that, most of the power generators run on diesel, which is -- they're having diesel shortages. And in addition to that, I think we should look towards Mali's neighboring allied military junta states, those being Burkina Faso and Niger. All three of these countries together form something called the AES [Alliance des États du Sahel], and they're supposed to have a security pact and a security alliance to fight, primarily JNIM. So far, there have been rumors of Niger launching drone attacks against rebel forces near their borders, but these have not been confirmed, and there certainly have not been Burkinabe or Nigerien troops on the ground in Mali thus far. And finally, I would say we should look at the reactions of the United States, ECOWAS and France. You know, all three of these powers, if you call them that, used to be more influential in Mali, but since the 2020 coup that saw Assimi Goïta, the current head of state, take power, their power and influence has been replaced by the Russians. But it's possible that they look at this situation and say, okay, this is an opportunity for us to again have power in Mali and have influence over Mali and their substantial cotton and gold industries. I think one kind of interesting way in which this might be playing out is that there has been credible reporting that the Ukrainian military, of all people, is actually directly aiding the FLA rebels in the north in the form of kind of assisting them with drone teams. So this is supposedly kind of like a circuitous way of getting the Russians to put more resources into northern Mali, as opposed to Ukraine. But still very, very interesting and some validity to the statements that the West is backing rebel movement in Mali.

JIMMY: Well, Owen, that seems like a good place to pause for today, but thanks so much for your time and for getting us caught up. Always appreciate you. 

OWEN: It's my pleasure.

UAE leaves OPEC

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: The United Arab Emirates says it will leave the OPEC oil cartel and its wider OPEC+ group tomorrow.

That will effectively end its relationship with the group it joined in 1967.

OPEC, also known as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is a group of oil-producing nations which coordinates on the production of oil.

Their goal is to unify policies and keep prices stable while responding to global demand.

The group is responsible for about 40% of the world’s oil production.

Oil prices have remained high in recent weeks.

That follows U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, which led to Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Those disruptions took millions of barrels per day offline.

Gas prices in the United States have also surged to record highs.

Now, the UAE is the third-largest producer in the group, behind Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Its exit could significantly weaken OPEC’s power.

The move may also further strain relations with Saudi Arabia.

Of course, while there may not be an immediate impact on prices, UAE leaving OPEC would allow the UAE to produce more oil at a time of high demand and high prices.

That comes as the country faces costly repairs after Iran’s strikes.

South Korean Navy to launch nuclear-powered submarines

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: South Korea’s defense ministry has approved plans to establish a nuclear-powered submarine fleet.

The first steps are set to begin tomorrow.

U.S. President Donald Trump said in October that he approved plans for the US to work with South Korea on the project.

The South Korean Navy says it will form a nuclear-powered submarine procurement group starting May 1.

That group will include a general officer and 30 personnel.

The Navy said the team will train staff, develop education programs and define safety guidelines over the medium to long term.

Now, the move could strengthen South Korea’s defense capabilities.

That comes as ties grow closer between Russia and North Korea.

Plans to share technology may also strengthen trade and military cooperation between South Korea and the United States.

The move may also act as a deterrent to North Korea, which continues to expand its nuclear missile arsenal.

Local elections in the U.K.

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Voters in England, Scotland and Wales will head to the polls next Thursday.

The elections are being closely watched as a test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

In England, nearly 5,000 council seats are up for election.

Six areas will also elect mayors.

Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform Party is hoping to gain support in areas that have traditionally backed Labour.

In Scotland, voters will decide the makeup of the Scottish Parliament.

Polls show the pro-independence SNP as the largest party, though it is unclear if it will win a majority.

In Wales, polls suggest Labour could fall behind.

While the party has dominated there for a century, it’s now polling third, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform.

In both Wales and Scotland, Labour is hoping to perform better than expected and finish second.

That could lead to coalition talks.

On the left, the Green Party is hoping to gain more seats.

Now, the next U.K. general election is scheduled for 2029 or earlier.

Accordingly, these elections are likely to be seen as a mid-term report card for the Labour government.

A bruising defeat in England as well as third or worse place finishes for Labour in Scotland and Wales could endanger the position of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. 

Leadership contenders are said to be waiting in the wings for an opportune moment.

48th ASEAN Leaders’ Summit

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Diplomats from 11 Southeast Asian nations will meet in the Philippines next Friday and Saturday.

The gathering is part of the 48th ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in Cebu.

In the lead-up to the summit, hundreds of meetings have been moved online to cut costs.

That follows the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. says the summit will focus on addressing issues such as fuel supply, food prices and migrant workers.

Leaders are also expected to discuss the situation in Myanmar.

That includes the Five-Point Consensus introduced in 2021.

Officials also say they hope to make progress on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

China is not a member of ASEAN, but is taking part as a dialogue partner.

Now, earlier in April, Myanmar’s president and former junta leader reduced the sentence of jailed former leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The government also granted amnesty to more than 4,300 prisoners for the Myanmar New Year.

ASEAN has called the move “a positive step towards inclusive national dialogue”and is encouraging more releases.

Analysts are watching to see if the summit leads to further progress as the new government looks to reconcile its relationship with the regional bloc.

Still, some analysts are also skeptical about any major developments on the South China Sea.

Past resolutions were seen as ineffective due to lack of authority and enforcement.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Michael Archer, and Hua Hsieh. Our interview featured editor Owen Bonertz and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2026 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe