This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is May 7, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got a hantavirus-stricken cruise ship headed for Spain’s Canary Islands, Victory Day in Russia, a U.S. Supreme Court deadline on an abortion drug, a national strike in Belgium, and U.S. President Donald Trump headed to China.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Hantavirus disease outbreak

Interview featuring Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at the hantavirus cases reported on a cruise ship in the Atlantic. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Matthew Hipolito.

JIMMY: Hey there, Matthew, nice to see you. 

MATTHEW: Always a pleasure to see you, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Thanks for being here. I know you've been tracking the situation of that cruise ship with an apparent hantavirus outbreak. What can you tell us about it? 

MATTHEW: Well, first thing we should probably start off with is what hantavirus is. The hantaviruses are a class of viruses that are mainly spread from rodents to humans that can cause some pretty severe diseases. Person-to-person transmission for most of them is rare but possible. There's no cure, but survival rates can be improved with good medical care, with the specific prognosis varying by strain. I think, just this morning, it was confirmed that the particular strain aboard this ship is called the Andes virus, which is endemic to South America and caused an outbreak in 2018 that killed 11 people there. Back to the ship itself, so the ship is the MV Hondius, I believe I'm pronouncing that right, which is an ice-breaking cruise ship that's operated by a Dutch company called Oceanwide Expeditions. It's got 147 people aboard, and they left Ushuaia, Argentina, on the first of April on an Antarctic itinerary. In total, I believe there are eight confirmed or suspected cases, with three dead and three others in severe condition. But, by the time that hantavirus was confirmed at all, an infected passenger had already traveled aboard a flight from Saint Helena to Johannesburg for treatment, and another one had disembarked on Ascension Island. And early this morning, the WHO said that somebody who had previously disembarked the ship before it continued on its cruise had returned to Switzerland before presenting to a hospital for treatment after they got an email from the cruise line about the outbreak.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments? 

MATTHEW: Well, aside from the Swiss guy and the confirmation that this is, in fact, the Andes strain of the virus – those are two main things – aboard the ship itself, strict disease control measures have been implemented. I think that the WHO said that Cape Verde isn't really equipped to handle the outbreak, so they asked Spain to take over and Spain said, yeah. So I think the latest update is that the ship will be heading for Tenerife in the Canary Islands soon. Their plan is to dock the ship at a rarely used port – it's near an airport – so that should help to minimize contact with the local population and then logistical overhead with getting people examined, treated and moved on. They are evacuating three people who are in need of advanced treatment back to the Netherlands, and there's no sign that anyone else has symptoms right now, but they will be examined by Spanish crews in Tenerife before being repatriated home.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions have you seen to everything? 

MATTHEW: Well, the reaction in the Canary Islands isn't great. The local head of the government has said that there's no, quote, unquote, “technical basis” for it, and he says the government hasn't been communicating with him. They didn't tell him that they had, like, received or accepted the WHO's request. And the government denies all this. The local head has asked for a meeting with the prime minister. It's, you know, probably worth noting, it's just a little side note, that this guy is a member of the current opposition coalition to the government in Madrid. But the government says, you know, it's not relevant – that part's not relevant, they've given him all the information. The mayor of Tenerife itself says he's also worried because of the lack of communication. For their part, the health ministry has promised to implement appropriate safety measures, make sure they don't come in contact the local population, hence that isolated port, yada yada. Outside of the Canary Islands, it's, you know, it's a multinational public health response. St Helena and Ascension Island are both British possessions. Saint Helena is actually where they sent Napoleon the second time, actually, and so the UK is involved. As we discussed, Spain's heavily involved. You know, cruise company and the ship is Dutch flagged, so the Netherlands are involved. South Africa received a sick passenger before they knew it was hantavirus. I think I read that there's a lab in Senegal helping them do sequencing. Argentina is where the ship departed from, and of course, you got that Swiss guy now. So it's a very working-level type group effort.

JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

MATTHEW: So, as I said earlier, person- to-person transmission of the hantaviruses is pretty rare, but it's not impossible. As I said, this particular strain, the Andes strain, was responsible for killing 11 people in an outbreak a few years back in 2018, out of 30 some cases overall, and it's one the easier ones to transmit person-to-person. Because of that, and the fact that the hantaviruses' diseases can be very severe, and, you know, potentially fatal, any indication of broader spread among the population would be pretty serious. But, you know, I say that, but that is the worst, worst, absolute worst case scenario. Everyone is saying, you know – WHO, European Commission, authorities in both Saint Helena and Ascension Island, everyone – they're aligned in saying that the risk to the population is low, just because, you know, although it's documented to spread between humans, it's still fairly rare. So right now, the best that we can hope for is that the sick get better and nobody else gets sick.

JIMMY: Well, Matthew, as usual, that's where we'll have to take a pause for today, but thank you so much for your time and for getting us up to speed on this hantavirus situation. Appreciate you. 

MATTHEW: Always a pleasure, Jimmy.

Victory Day in Russia

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Both Russia and Ukraine have proposed ceasefires surrounding the upcoming Victory Day holiday tomorrow.

They follow a recent uptick in Ukrainian attacks on Russian cities and oil and gas infrastructure.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said the ceasefire would take place on May 8th and 9th during Victory Day events.

Russia’s Victory Day commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

Russian officials warn that if Ukraine violates the ceasefire, the Kremlin would launch a missile strike on central Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine had not been officially contacted about the Russian proposal, but said Ukraine would observe its own truce from midnight on May 6.

Of course, after the Ukrainian ceasefire began, Kyiv reported a Russian attack involving 108 drones and three missiles.

During previous ceasefires, both sides accused the other of violating the agreements.

There is no evidence to suggest this ceasefire will be any different.

Accordingly, any Ukrainian strike targeting the Moscow region on May 8th or 9th would likely be used by the Kremlin to justify a large-scale retaliation against Kyiv.

Deadline for SCOTUS stay on abortion drug

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: A U.S. Supreme Court order allowing access to a widely used abortion drug by mail is set to expire Monday.

Last week, the Supreme Court temporarily blocked a lower court ruling that would have stopped abortion providers from prescribing mifepristone remotely nationwide.

The case began after Louisiana sued the Food and Drug Administration.

State officials argued that allowing the drug to be prescribed through telemedicine circumvented Louisiana’s abortion ban following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

The Supreme Court gave Louisiana and the FDA until 5 pm Eastern today to respond.

The FDA approved mifepristone in 2000 as a safe way to terminate pregnancies.

The drug is typically used together with misoprostol.

Medication abortions now account for about 65% of all abortions performed in the U.S., with virtual clinics playing a growing role in abortion access.

In response, conservative states have increased efforts to restrict access to abortion pills.

If prescribing mifepristone online is ruled illegal, some medical providers may instead use misoprostol on its own. That drug was originally approved to treat gastric ulcers.

Belgium national strike

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: A national strike in protest of government policies is expected across Belgium on Tuesday.

The country has seen several general strikes over the past year, including one this past March.

This time, workers are protesting rising energy prices, declining purchasing power and the government’s pension reform plan.

Under the proposed reform, pilots would be required to work until the retirement age of 66.

That conflicts with rules set by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency.

Public transportation disruptions are expected across the country, with international flights at Brussels airport likely to be interrupted.

Schools and other public services are likely to be affected as well.

Finally, a large demonstration is planned in central Brussels, which could lead to additional disruptions or unrest in the capital.

Trump meets Xi in Beijing

Information compiled by Halima Mansoor

JIMMY: President Donald Trump is expected to visit China next Thursday.

He’s slated to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid two days of in-person meetings and public events.

The trip was originally delayed because of the U.S. war in Iran.

Of course, Trump was also the last U.S. president to visit Beijing. That trip came during his first term.

After that, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Biden administration’s focus on strengthening alliances in the Indo-Pacific made a China visit less of a priority.

At the start of Trump’s second term, the U.S. imposed a series of tariffs on China.

China responded with its own measures, leading to months of escalating trade tensions and negotiations throughout most of 2025.

The two sides later agreed to a year-long trade truce during a meeting in South Korea in October of last year.

Under the agreement, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese exports to 47 percent, while China agreed to remove export controls on rare earth minerals.

Now, the visit comes as the war in Iran continues to affect the global economy.

China is seen as having some influence in discussions over the conflict because nearly half of its energy imports pass through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.

Trade is expected to be Trump’s main focus during the summit, still, discussions are also likely to include Taiwan, a longtime U.S. ally.

Finally, it remains unclear what compromises Trump may be willing to make during the talks.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors James Morgan, Theresa Seiger, Jess Fino, and Halima Mansoor. Our interview featured editor Matthew Hipolito and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe