This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is May 21, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got violent protests in Bolivia, an election in Cyprus, the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia, talks on a U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal, and the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Bolivia protests

Interview featuring Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the protests that have erupted in Bolivia. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Jeff Landset.

JIMMY: Hi, Jeff.

JEFF: Hi, Jimmy. How are you?

JIMMY: I'm great, and I'm glad you're here. There have been some pretty notable protests recently in Bolivia, and I'm hoping you can tell us a little bit more about them. So, you know, what's going on?

JEFF: Yeah, Jimmy, over the past couple of weeks, Bolivia has seen a large-scale amount of protests in the cities, especially in La Paz, as well as blockades on dozens of highways that have effectively shut the country down, caused shortages of food and medicine, and obviously disrupted transportation. Supply chain issues abound; they even needed to fly in supplies from other countries just to keep things going. These protests have escalated sharply in the last couple of weeks. We have seen a large swath of the population join in on these protests, notably miners from around the country, as well as teachers, and the main trade union, which is the COB. We have seen them protest in the city of La Paz, as well as other places, which have gotten quite violent at times. The police there have fired tear gas and pepper spray, and some of the miners have actually blown up dynamite in the streets as part of the protest. Police have also arrested dozens of people, mainly these miners who are causing issues during these protests. And all this can be traced back to essentially the economy of Bolivia, and the unrest that people are feeling based off of that economy.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? You've seen any new developments?

JEFF: Yeah, so there has been a severe uptick in these protests. We have seen the violence getting worse and worse. We've seen more and more police making arrests. We have seen the police trying to clear these blockades. And so at this moment, the things that are happening in the protests are getting worse, as well as the government is trying different ways to quell these protests. They have taken laws off the books as a way to try to help these people calm down and stop the protests, but so far nothing has really worked, and at this moment the protests continue to go on as badly as they have been over the past couple of weeks.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to all this?

JEFF: Yeah, so most of the anger in these protests is directed towards the President Rodrigo Paz. He took office just six months ago, but has seen a precipitous drop in his approval rating based off of how the economy is going, and how he has made his decisions based on the economy over the last couple of months. After taking office, you know, he ran as a centrist, which is a far cry from what Bolivia is used to. For two decades, they were governed by the MAS Party, Movement for Socialism, which obviously is a left-leaning party, and the MAS Party catered to the indigenous groups in the country, as well as peasants and rural farmers, and so they saw significant benefits from that party, which were cleared out as soon as Paz got into office. He ended such things as fuel subsidies, as well as mortgage laws for some of the small farms in the rural areas, and so a lot of the economic choices that Paz made as a way to try to end the inflation and try to attack the large deficit the country has angered the population, and basically they tried to get rid of some of these untouchable benefits for a large portion of the population, which obviously started to get the people angry and has led to where we are today.

JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

JEFF: So, the main person who is seen as the instigator on these protests is former President Evo Morales. He has been inflaming his supporters with tweets and other social media posts trying to destabilize the country – is what some of the government officials have been accusing him of. This may also be timed up well perfectly with his trial, which began a couple of weeks ago, as well. He faces charges of sex trafficking based off of allegations that he fathered a child with a 15-year-old girl while he was in office. Despite those allegations and charges, his supporters are still standing by him, still protecting him. There have been some allegations from him that the US and Bolivia are trying to team up in an operation to take him into custody. And so, we could see that happen – if Morales is taken into custody with the help of the US – that would really advance the protests. We may see even more violence, even more anger from the population. And yeah, so if we, if we see Morales, anything happen to him, that could kick off a brand new bloody and violent chapter in this saga.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, we'll have to pause there for today, but as usual, thank you so much for your time and for the insight into the region. Appreciate you.

JEFF: Thanks, Jimmy.

Cyprus parliamentary election

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Cyprus will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday.

Voters will elect 56 of the legislature’s 80 seats.

The remaining seats, once chosen by Turkish Cypriots, have remained unfilled since the 1960s.

In the last election in 2021, the center-right Democratic Rally party narrowly defeated the far-left Progressive Party.

Now, polls indicate at least seven parties could win enough support to enter parliament.

Still, Democratic Rally and the Progressive Party are once again projected to emerge as the two frontrunners.

Campaigning for the first time is the new Direct Democracy party founded by Fidias Panayiotou.

The former YouTube prankster previously won a seat in the European Parliament and is now attempting to influence an election in his native Cyprus for the first time.

Hajj

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: Many Muslims will travel to Mecca in Saudi Arabia for a sacred pilgrimage starting Monday.

Hajj is the largest yearly gathering of Muslims around the world, serving as the fifth pillar of Islam.

Every Muslim is expected to complete the pilgrimage at least once in their lifetime if they are physically and mentally able and have the financial means to do so.

Millions of Muslims take part in the pilgrimage every year.

Now, the war in Iran and resulting instability have caused the price of making the journey to rise significantly for worshippers.

Higher living costs and rising jet fuel prices have also made the pilgrimage too expensive for many Muslims around the world.

Hajj is set to last from May 25 through May 30.

USMCA talks begin

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: The first official round of bilateral negotiations over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is set to begin Monday.

That, as a July 1 deadline looms for the future of the trade pact.

Last month, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexico’s economy secretary, Marcelo Ebrard, said talks would take place in Mexico City.

The three countries must approve a renewal of the agreement by the end of June or signal intentions to leave the deal.

President Trump has repeatedly threatened to pull out of the deal he signed during his first term, claiming Canada and Mexico had “taken advantage” of the United States.

He has also imposed various tariffs on both countries while keeping some exemptions in place.

Now, Greer has said negotiations are likely to continue past the deadline.

He described Mexican officials as “quite pragmatic” while saying talks with Canada have been “more challenging.”

If the three countries reach an agreement, the trade pact would remain in effect until 2036.

If no deal is reached, the pact would instead move into an annual review cycle.

Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Singapore will host the Shangri-La Dialogue beginning next Friday.

The three-day summit is one of Asia’s top security forums.

It will bring together defense ministers, military leaders and senior security officials from across Asia, Europe and North America.

Discussions are expected to focus on regional deterrence, maritime security, and strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region.

Vietnamese President To Lam is expected to deliver the opening keynote address, highlighting Vietnam’s growing strategic importance in the region.

Now, this year’s Dialogue comes amid growing uncertainty around U.S.-China relations, tensions between China and Taiwan, and ongoing unrest in the South China Sea.

Analysts will also be closely watching China’s delegation after last year’s summit was skipped by the country’s defense minister, who instead sent a lower-level academic delegation.

Singapore’s defense ministry says the forum has become an increasingly important venue for strategic dialogue as geopolitical divisions continue to grow.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Michael Archer, Joe Veyera, and Awais Ahmad. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe