This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is May 28, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got negotiations on an elusive Iran peace deal, the Champions League Final, elections in Colombia and Ethiopia, and a general strike in Portugal. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Possible Iran deal

Interview featuring Jordan Seagrove

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at a possible deal between the US and Iran. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Jordan Seagrove.

JIMMY: Hello, Jordan.

JORDAN: Hello, Jimmy.

JIMMY: So glad to finally get you on the podcast. Looking forward to catching up on this, well, possible deal, apparently between the US and Iran. What can you tell us about it?

JORDAN: Well, we've been seeing a lot of talk about a possible memorandum of understanding that's being negotiated. Unfortunately, we don't know a lot about its contents, or even how much progress has been made. On Saturday, Trump posted on Truth Social, saying that a deal was imminent that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. We saw Iran's Fars News pretty quickly push back on that and say that, while a lot of things were being discussed, negotiations were still ongoing. Additionally, they said that while ships may start passing through Hormuz, that there would not be a return to the pre-war status quo. Since then, there's been a lot of reporting on details, but again, a lot of it is contradictory, and both sides seem to be pretty quick to snipe at details. We can say the deal will probably end the war. It will involve ships once again transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, but everything else is very much up in the air and has been, in one way or the other, disputed by one of the sides. I said before that Iran had said there would not be a return to the pre-war status quo. One of the things we saw after the weekend, in which Trump made his announcement and Fars News pushed back, was the Iranian foreign ministry's spokesperson saying that, while they would not be collecting tolls on the Strait of Hormuz or ships passing through it, since they're going to be administering it, and they're going to be providing navigation services, and they're going to be even taking care of environmental concerns, that they would be collecting fees. So this may be a way some of this stuff gets squared – is, Trump says they're not going to control it, and Iran says, well, we're not controlling it, we're administering it. Similarly, on the US side, Trump has been pivoting from previous statements about getting rid of all nuclear materials in Iran. He had said previously that all highly enriched uranium would need to be exported from the country. Now he's saying it can be destroyed locally. What he means by that, precisely, as with a lot of things Trump says, can be difficult to parse. However, if he's referring to perhaps downblending it – that's a process by which highly enriched uranium is mixed with either low-enriched or unenriched uranium to make a total that has a lower enrichment – that's something Iran has previously suggested that they are open to, and so that could actually represent real progress in talks, but again, we just don't know.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

JORDAN: Yeah, so earlier this week we had an incident in which the US Central Command said that they fired on two Iranian vessels that were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and then subsequently fired at a surface-to-air missile battery on Iran's southern coast. They said that they consider the ceasefire still in place, and Iran, for the most part, seems to be in a similar state, where they're not -- it doesn't seem like it's overly disruptive to negotiations to have Iranian media calling it a ceasefire violation. I believe one of the parliament members, who represents Bandar Abbas, also said that it was a ceasefire violation and referenced that some Iranian service members had been killed, but otherwise that seems to be holding. We also saw --  we had an Iranian delegation, which included the head of their central bank, in Doha, reportedly negotiating unfreezing some of Iran's assets. However, now just – we're recording this on Wednesday – just today, one of the things Trump said during his cabinet meeting was that there would not be any money going to Iran. So we have a lot of developments, but unfortunately it doesn't seem to be changing the status quo as far as we can see at this time.

JIMMY: Well, you know, like, what sort of reactions have you seen to all this?

JORDAN: They're varied. I would say the general mood in the Gulf has been one of caution. A lot of people don't really seem to quite know how this is going to break yet. The UAE, which has so far seemed to be one of the more hard line in their stance towards Iran, that the UAE has referenced in multiple statements by government officials and by its defense ministry that it's been targeted very heavily by Iran during this conflict and originally pushed for a very maximalist deal, one that dismantled the Iranian missile program, that dismantled their nuclear program, that stopped support for regional proxies, and of course did not allow them to administer the Strait of Hormuz. So far, though, the messaging – Anwar Gargash, who's an advisor to the UAE President MPZ [Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan], has more recently been saying that returning to war will be very bad, and that he's hopeful that a negotiated settlement will take place. In terms of this attempt by Trump that we've seen recently to include the recent negotiations as part of the Abraham Accords, that seems to be pretty much a non-starter for everyone in the region. Meanwhile, in Israel, I think it's probably viewed by this government as a disaster. If you are the current government, you're heading into elections in the fall, looking at a very real chance of defeat. And if you're Netanyahu, in particular, who spent the last couple of decades in politics being the Iran guy, being the person whose main selling point is he will protect you from Iran, and now you've had an administration that's probably about as receptive to taking military action to realize regime change in Iran as you're ever going to get, and you still can't get there? That's – that's not good for your political brand. And in the meantime, it seems like either to shore up political support, or possibly to act as a bit of a spoiler, we're seeing an increase in strikes in southern Lebanon as a result.

JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

JORDAN: At least rhetorically, Iran has said that Lebanon and Hezbollah have to be included in any ceasefire or any final settlement. On the ground, they've seemed to be pretty accepting of Israel carrying out pretty continuous strikes in southern Lebanon. So that remains to be seen. First, if Israel will actually escalate, if they'll begin striking farther north, if they'll begin moving troops farther north, and then to see whether or not that is in fact a red line for Iran. Also, any details that both sides actually can point to and agree to. I mentioned possible downblending of highly enriched uranium earlier. That's something that Iran has been open to and seems okay with, and it's also something that could be used as a victory domestically in the United States, and it's also been something that previously has been a hang-up in negotiations where the US has taken a more maximalist approach towards Iran's nuclear program. A lot of what has previously halted these negotiations has been that almost every point in one side's plan crosses a red line in another. So, where in another negotiation you might have 10, 20 points, and two of them are really hard boundaries for the other, pretty much you can go down line by line on the US and Iranian proposed plans, and each and every one of them would have normally rendered an otherwise acceptable plan as unacceptable. So I think even just getting past one of those and having both sides say something would, on the diplomatic side, be a really quite interesting achievement.

JIMMY: Well, Jordan, that is our time to pause then for the week, but I do appreciate your time. Always appreciate you keeping an eye on the region for us. Thanks.

JORDAN: Thank you for having me, Jimmy.

Note: Shortly after the recording of this interview, the US military shot down Iranian drones and conducted a strike on a ground control station near Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, according to an NBC report, citing a US official. 

Champions League Final

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain will face off in the Champions League final on Saturday.

The match will be played in front of a sold-out crowd at the Puskás Aréna stadium in Budapest, Hungary.

Both teams won their national league titles this season.

PSG won France’s Ligue 1 title for the fifth straight year, while Arsenal ended a 22-year drought to win England’s Premier League.

Arsenal last reached the Champions League final in 2006, but has never won the tournament.

PSG is also trying to defend its title, something only Real Madrid has done before.

The match will begin earlier than usual at 6 p.m. local time to better accommodate fans in Budapest.

Security in and around the stadium is expected to be tight, with ID checks taking place.

Now, an Arsenal win would be a defining moment for the team ahead of a planned parade in London on Sunday to celebrate its Premier League title.

Large crowds are already expected around the team’s Emirates stadium home.

A PSG victory would likely bring large celebrations to the streets of Paris and nearby communities.

More than 100 arrests were made and 23 police officers were injured during clashes after PSG qualified for the final earlier this month.

Colombian presidential election

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: Colombians will vote for their next president on Sunday.

That, amid safety concerns tied to ongoing fighting between armed groups.

The leading candidates are Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella.

Left-wing candidate Cepeda leads in polling and has focused on security through dialogue and peace negotiations with armed groups.

Far-right candidate De la Espriella is close behind and has promised to build 10 megaprisons in the jungle "in the style" of those used by El Salvador President Nayib Bukele.

Center-right candidate Paloma Valencia is also in the running and has proposed an international alliance to combat drug trafficking, along with expanding geothermal and nuclear energy.

An influx of attacks by militant groups, including FARC and ELN, have raised concerns across the country ahead of the election.

The assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay in Bogota last July also highlighted Colombia’s instability and fears of more election-related violence.

If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held on June 21.

Ethiopia general elections

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Millions of people are expected to vote on Monday in Ethiopia’s first parliamentary election since the end of the Tigray war.

More than 50 million people have reportedly registered to vote in the country’s seventh general election, with more than 187,000 officials expected to administer voting at over 52,000 polling stations nationwide.

The African Union has sent election observers to the country, with a preliminary assessment of election-day procedures expected on June 3.

In Ethiopia’s last election in 2021, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party won by a landslide amid allegations of election irregularities.

Now, officials have touted voter registration numbers as “a historic milestone in the country’s democratic evolution.”

Still, allegations of voter manipulation and intimidation have already surfaced, and the election is not expected to be competitive.

Security concerns also remain high, with long-running insurgencies ongoing in the country’s largest regions of Oromia and Amhara.

Tensions also remain high in Tigray despite a peace agreement signed in 2022.

Voting has already been canceled in several constituencies.

Portugal general strike

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: A large strike is expected to take place across Portugal on Wednesday as workers protest proposed changes to the country’s labor laws.

One of the country’s largest trade unions called for the general strike.

It would be the twelfth general strike in Portugal since the end of the dictatorship in 1974 and comes just six months after the last nationwide strike.

That previous strike had significant impacts to transportation, schools, health services and other sectors.

The latest call for action comes after Portugal’s Council of Ministers approved revisions to labor legislation despite strong opposition from trade unions and opposition parties.

The measures include greater flexibility in working hours, expanded use of temporary contracts, easier dismissals and limits on the right to strike and union activity.

Critics say the proposed changes would lead to a more precarious job market.

The bill will now move to parliamentary debate.

Now, several sectors are expected to be affected by Wednesday’s strike, including education, transportation and health services.

Most unions and sectors have said they will join the strike action.

The Civil Aviation Pilots Union said it will not participate, adding it’s not the right time for it.

Still, airport operations are likely to face disruptions because flight personnel and airport workers unions plan to take part.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Michael Archer, Theresa Seiger, and Jess Fino. Our interview featured editor Jordan Seagrove and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe