This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is June 11, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the deadly earthquake in the Philippines, a UFC fight at the White House, a referendum in Switzerland, the EU Summit, and the Juneteenth holiday in the US. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Philippines quake

Interview featuring Halima Mansoor

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the deadly quake that struck the Philippines. For more on that I’ve got Facal Senior Editor Halima Mansoor.

JIMMY: Hello, Halima.

HALIMA: Hey, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Well, Halima, I know you've got a lot to cover, so let's just dive into this story. What can you tell us about this earthquake in the Philippines?

HALIMA: Well, the earthquake that struck the Philippines on Monday morning was a powerful one. It was initially reported as a magnitude 8.2 before it was revised down to a 7.8. It triggered tsunami warnings in southern Philippines, parts of Indonesia, and Malaysia, and Japan. And while it's not uncommon for large earthquakes to trigger tsunami warnings, this one actually generated waves of up to 1.5 meters in Mindanao region of the Philippines, sending water inland. Tsunami waves were also detected in North Sulawesi in Indonesia. It was powerful enough to cause buildings in the Philippines to collapse, damaging more than 7,000 houses, according to the UN. As of today, I believe at least 25,000 people remain displaced. General Santos City in the Philippines was hit the hardest. It lost comms, power, and its airport was damaged. The airport is operational again, but it's not open to the public, as it's still handling relief and aid flights.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments?

HALIMA: Overall, so far, the earthquake has killed at least 45 people in the Philippines and injured some 650 more. There were at least 17 people unaccounted for when I last checked, and officials have warned that the tolls will go up as they're still verifying fatalities. Things are still really, very, in early stages. People are still sleeping outside because of the aftershocks. Search and rescue is still going on in General Santos City and some other areas in Mindanao. The government is still inspecting buildings and companies are trying to restore seamless telecoms, so we're just in that space where a lot is still happening in terms of response.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to the devastation?

HALIMA: There was the usual offers of aid from global leaders, especially the regional ones, but something else that caught our attention right after the earthquake was how many of the visuals coming in showed collapsed school buildings, but the children were all outside, and that was because children were attending a flag ceremony to mark their return to school following the summer holiday. I saw coverage of teachers from the aftermath saying basically that ceremony saved lives, because had those children been inside the schools when the earthquake struck, we could have been covering a tragedy, a very different kind of story.

JIMMY: Well, considering everything that's going on, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

HALIMA: Well, like with most disasters, the story slips from the front page after a week or so, but for the people there, it's very much a process that will continue for months. We have to watch for how the monsoon season impacts Mindanao, where people have been displaced, and as I said, are still sleeping outside. We have to see how fast the Philippine government rebuilds roads to ensure neighborhoods are not cut off when – especially when there's flooding, if there is flooding, and also how it handles longer term shelters for these displaced people, how it assesses structural safety of buildings, and that sort of thing.

JIMMY: Well, Halima, we'll pause there for today, then, but thanks for the update on the quake, and thanks so much for keeping an eye on the region for it. Appreciate it.

HALIMA: Thank you for having me.

White House hosts UFC event

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: The White House will host a UFC event on Sunday.

It’s part of celebrations marking 250 years of U.S. independence.

President Donald Trump announced that a UFC octagon will be set up on the South Lawn. About 4,300 people are expected to attend.

UFC CEO Dana White estimated the weekend will cost about $60 million.

The event also coincides with Trump's 80th birthday.

Now, the event is facing a legal challenge.

The Public Integrity Project filed a lawsuit seeking to block the event from taking place at the White House.

The group cited what it called a “profound misuse of our sacred national monuments for private gain” and pointed to National Park Service regulations.

It remains unclear whether the event will proceed as planned.

Trump has described it as the “greatest show on Earth.”

Switzerland referendum

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: A controversial referendum on limiting Switzerland’s population will go before voters on Sunday.

The proposal was launched by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party after it gathered the 100,000 signatures to qualify for a national referendum.

The proposal seeks to cap the country’s permanent resident population at 10 million people and ensure it couldn’t exceed that by 2050.

The Swiss People’s Party has the largest number of seats in the country’s parliament, and has campaigned against immigration, warning it has degraded public services and put a strain on infrastructure and the environment.

Opponents include centrist and left-wing political parties, as well as business leaders and labor unions.

They have warned that heavily restricted immigration could hurt the economy and violate existing international agreements.

Now, a poll released earlier this month suggested the proposal may fail, but with a narrow margin that could shift in the final days of the campaign.

If the measure passes, the population cap would be added to the constitution.

Population-control efforts would then begin once the population reaches 9.5 million, meaning the effects of the proposal could be felt years before the cap is reached.

EU Summit

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: European Union leaders will meet for a two-day summit starting next Thursday.

The bloc’s economic and physical security is expected to be a major focus.

Leaders are facing growing pressure to reduce Europe’s economic dependence on Beijing.

Several members, including France, are calling for new measures targeting Chinese overproduction.

They have warned that cheap imports threaten to undermine the EU economy.

The war in Ukraine will also be high on the agenda.

The bloc is preparing to roll out a massive 90 billion-euro loan to Kyiv, more than four years into the full-scale war.

Of course, recently, an escalation in tit-for-tat strikes by Russia and Ukraine has resulted in drones straying into EU airspace, most notably in Romania in late May when a Russian drone struck a residential block in Galati, injuring two people.

Now, the European Commission is reviewing the bloc’s trade defense measures.

European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said officials are considering rules requiring companies in sensitive sectors to reduce reliance on single suppliers.

The EU’s trade deficit with China has continued to widen, reaching 360 billion euros in 2025.

That has fueled concerns over a possible EU-China trade war.

Juneteenth

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: Juneteenth is next Friday.

Celebrated annually on June 19th, it commemorates the day in 1865 when the last enslaved people in the United States learned they were free.

That was more than two years after the Emancipation Proclamation was signed

Juneteenth was recognized as a federal holiday in the U.S. in 2021.

It’s often marked by celebrations and demonstrations across the country.

Now, the Trump administration has removed Juneteenth and Martin Luther King Jr. Day from the list of free days at national parks.

Earlier this year, President Trump signed an executive order banning diversity, equality and inclusion (DEI) programs from federal U.S. agencies.

That led to some agencies banning celebrations of holidays viewed as DEI-adjacent, including Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Juneteenth.

Meanwhile, activists have announced a 10-day campaign of demonstrations tied to Juneteenth 2026.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Michael Archer, David Wyllie, and James Morgan. Our interview featured editor Halima Mansoor and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe