This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is June 18, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Juneteenth, a runoff election in Colombia, primary elections in New York, Maryland, and Utah, and the World Cup “Pride Match.” 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

US Gulf Coast flooding

Interview featuring Alex Moore

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at Tropical Storm Arthur and the flooding affecting the US Gulf Coast. For more on that I’ve got Factal Senior Editor Alex Moore.

JIMMY: Hi, Alex.

ALEX: Hello, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Well, Alex, I know it's technically hurricane season in the Atlantic, but I was sort of hoping we'd go at least a little bit before talking about storms and flooding and whatnot. But here we are, so, you know, what's going on?

ALEX: Yeah, here we are. We, as of right around noon Eastern Time Wednesday, the NHC has confirmed our first named storm of the hurricane season, which began at the beginning of June. So we have Tropical Storm Arthur that has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, right off of Texas's coast, but all week we've gotten some pretty significant flash flooding across wide swaths of Texas, ranging from San Antonio to Houston, other areas as well. We had one confirmed fatality in Bandera on Monday. As well as much of Louisiana, Shreveport, Bossier City had pretty extensive flooding earlier this week. The flood warnings remain in place for approximately two dozen million people, and yeah, that is forecast to continue throughout the rest of the week. But yeah, the main news as of recording is that the first named storm of the season has been confirmed by the NHC.

JIMMY: And besides that, what's the latest? There been any new developments you've seen?

ALEX: Yeah, the flooding on Monday was pretty significant in north Houston, San Antonio, as I alluded to earlier, Shreveport, Bossier [City], but the NHC advisory is, you know, warning of obviously further flooding occurring through the end of the week, Friday. In the aforementioned areas, there is a risk of moderate to minor storm surge as well along the Louisiana, Texas coast. The storm is kind of forecasted to move inland right around the Louisiana-Texas border, either late Wednesday or early Thursday. So, and of course, will then, you know, dissipate over that area and continue to bring heavy rainfall. So, a lot of the areas are warned that, you know, as many as 10 inches of rain will continue to fall throughout the next day or two, so the flash flooding that's been occurring since Monday will likely continue in a lot of the impacted areas through the rest of the week.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to all this?

ALEX: Yeah, I mean, notably the storm and the flooding is occurring, coinciding with the city of Houston being one of the host cities for the FIFA World Cup, and in approximately a little over an hour from when we're recording this, Portugal and DR Congo will kick off a game in Houston. As of now, it looks like the game will go ahead just fine. I mean, the Houston stadium is an indoor facility, but the photos I've seen from people queuing – it looks quite rainy and miserable on the outside. Although, there have been multiple impacts this week to fan viewing zones in Houston, one of which had to be closed early. FIFA and the city of Houston have a policy in place where if there's lightning within X amount of miles of a fan zone, they have to, you know, shutter it, get everyone inside. So that's had to take place. They've had viewing zone areas, the time of opening, be pushed back a couple of times, so

JIMMY: Well, considering all that – and I know a lot of this could change by the time our podcast comes out – but you know, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

ALEX: Yeah, I mean, continue to monitor the NHC updates. As I kind of alluded to, it looks like Wednesday night, early Thursday, we'll get a landfall of sorts along the Louisiana-Texas border, so watch for more flooding throughout the rest of the week, which could also stretch – there was some flooding earlier this week in Mississippi, but it's possible that the storm could exacerbate that through Friday, also into the Panhandle area of Florida, Alabama, potentially Georgia as well. So it could be a bit more widespread than just Texas and Louisiana. But now, yeah, the hurricane season is very much in swing, so, as always, we'll be continuing to monitor for further named storm development in the Atlantic.

JIMMY: Well, Alex, I guess that's where we'll pause then for today, but thank you so much for your time, and for helping us get prepped for the season. Appreciate you. 

ALEX: Yeah, many thanks, Jimmy.

Juneteenth

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Americans will mark Juneteenth on Friday, with celebrations taking place across the country.

The holiday commemorates the end of slavery in the United States and traces its roots to 1865.

Juneteenth became a federal holiday in 2021 after then-President Joe Biden signed legislation recognizing the day.

Of course, President Donald Trump declined to acknowledge the holiday last year and it alongside Martin Luther King Jr. Day was removed from this year’s list of fee-free entrance days at National Parks.

Still, events are still planned nationwide.

Now, some celebrations will coincide with World Cup matches taking place in four U.S. cities.

That’s led to cross-promotional events aimed at attracting both residents and visitors.

Accordingly, these will take place under increased security measures prompted by the World Cup

In other cities hosting Juneteenth events, officials have announced road closures and changes to city services for the day.

Finally, in Tulsa, Oklahoma, where one person was killed during a mass shooting at last year’s Juneteenth celebrations, officials have announced several new safety measures for this year’s events.

Colombia presidential election runoff

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Colombians will vote on Sunday to choose their next president in a closely watched runoff election.

Voters will be choosing a new leader between two opposites on the political spectrum: the far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist candidate Iván Cepeda.

The race has been defined by violence, including the assassination of a candidate at a rally last year.

The two candidates have offered sharply different approaches to security.

De la Espriella has pledged a tougher crackdown on armed groups, including building megaprisons, holding mass trials for militants, and even bombing armed groups with support from the United States.

Cepeda, meanwhile, supports negotiations with armed groups and is credited with being the architect of President Gustavo Petro’s "Total Peace" strategy.

Kidnappings, extortion and homicides have increased since 2024.

Now, the election comes as several countries in Latin America have recently elected right-wing leaders who have promised to work with U.S. President Donald Trump and crack down on violence, to mixed results.

De la Espriella has even received an endorsement from Trump. 

Cepeda, meanwhile, has promised increased welfare benefits and other economic changes while maintaining that Colombia would not stoop to the United States. 

If de la Espriella wins, as he is expected to do, Colombia could return to an increased state of internal armed conflict between the military and guerrilla groups. 

In the end, though, it could come down to whether or not Colombians will listen to their own president or the U.S. president.

New York, Maryland, and Utah primaries

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Tightly contested U.S. House races are on the ballot in three states Tuesday.

Several incumbents are facing more serious intra-party challenges than they would against their presumptive November opponents.

Both parties are targeting seats in New York in November, with Democrats set to pick a challenger to face incumbent Mike Lawler, while Republicans select their opponents for races against Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen and Josh Riley. 

However, the Empire State's most notable race is likely in the 10th district, where former New York City comptroller Brad Lander is seeking to oust incumbent Dan Goldman. 

In Utah's redrawn 1st congressional district, moderate ex-Rep. Ben McAdams is seeking a return to Congress against progressive challengers, while Republican incumbents Blake Moore and Celeste Malloy face challenges from their right. 

In Maryland's 6th district, former Rep. David Trone also hopes to return to Washington, D.C., in an intra-party challenge to April McClain Delaney.

Now, with no House seats in Maryland or Utah considered competitive, and only a few in New York expected to be decided by close margins in the fall, Tuesday's results will likely determine at least two dozen members of the next Congress.

World Cup “Pride Match”

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: A World Cup soccer match between Egypt and Iran in Seattle next Friday has drawn controversy.

Local organizers designated the match as part of the city’s Pride Month celebrations, and both Egypt and Iran have objected to the themed events surrounding the match.

FIFA has said the Pride Month celebrations are not directly affiliated with the organization.

LGBTQ people and relationships are illegal in Iran, while morality laws in Egypt are used to prosecute LGBTQ people.

Now, both countries have warned they oppose the designation of the game as “Pride Match,” with Egypt saying in a statement it "categorically rejects holding any activities related to supporting ‘homosexuality.’”

They’ve also asked FIFA to take action to "avoid including activities that could provoke cultural and religious sensitivities." 

Still, a member of the advisory committee has said he hoped FIFA did the “right thing” by allowing the celebrations to take place as planned after asking visitors to “respect the culture” in Qatar when the tournament took place there four years ago.

JIMMY: One final note for you, the podcast will be off next week. So, our next episode will be out on July 2. 

In the meantime, we are a 24/7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on Bluesky, Threads or Mastodon where we’ll still be posting breaking news.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Theresa Seiger, Jeff Landset, Joe Veyera, and Jess Fino. Our interview featured editor Alex Moore and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe