This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 2, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the deadly earthquakes in Venezuela, Independence Day in the U.S., an impeachment trial for the Philippine vice president, Israel attending a UN policing conference, and the U.K.’s Labour Party undergoing a leadership contest. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Venezuela earthquakes

Interview featuring Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the deadly earthquakes that struck Venezuela last week. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Latin America coverage, Jeff Landset. 

JIMMY: Hello, Jeff.

JEFF: Hi, Jimmy. How are you? 

JIMMY: I am doing well. I wish we were meeting to talk about something fun, but these earthquakes look pretty awful, and I'm hoping you can give us a bit of a recap on what's happened.

JEFF: Yeah, in our time at Factal, this may end up being one of the worst, if not the worst, natural disasters we've seen. Last Wednesday, there were two earthquakes within seconds apart. One of them was a 7.2 magnitude, and the other was a 7.5 magnitude. They struck the north-central area of Venezuela. Shaking was felt in the capital of Caracas, and a lot of the damage was done there, as well as some of the coastal towns, especially the town of La Guaira. At the last check, more than 2,200 people have been killed, according to the official death toll, with more than 10,000 others injured, and at least 40,000 people are missing. So this has been a terrible tragedy at an especially interesting time in the country's history.

JIMMY: Well, what about the latest? Has there been any new developments you can tell us about?

JEFF: Yeah, the ongoing rescue efforts have been heroic. They have rescued dozens of people from underneath the rubble of these collapsed buildings, and we have seen true tales of unbelievable humanity. Some of the videos that we've seen of people being pulled out of this rubble will really touch your heart. At the moment, there have been a lot of teams on the ground rescuing, providing food, shelter, and water to people who aren't necessarily injured by the earthquakes, but they have been left homeless or no place to go. So, right now, the rescue efforts are underway and ongoing, and they will continue for some time.

JIMMY: What kind of reactions have you seen to this disaster?

JEFF: Well, internationally, there was a lot of outreach, even from countries that don't necessarily politically align with Venezuela and its socialist regime. For example, the US sent troops and search and rescue teams to the country to help rescue these people that were stuck under the rubble. We've seen a number of different countries, as close as El Salvador and as far away as Qatar, providing help in the region to try to find these people and provide any sort of semblance of normalcy for the people who had to live through it. On the ground, though, the people who live in Venezuela, they have reached a point of anger, for a lot of these people. Some of the people have felt that the government response is lacking. There have been anecdotal stories of people – they have had citizen-led rescue efforts that have done more than the government rescue efforts, and so we are seeing that these people maybe are starting to use this as a potential for a anti-government protests. There has been talk of that, and there is obviously the talk of Maria Corina Machado, a leading opposition figure who had left the country in the previous months. There has been talk of her trying to return to the country to provide people with help. Right now, the current government, who is diametrically opposed to anything she stands for, has tried to keep her away from the country, and trying to keep the people of Venezuela from protesting the current regime.

JIMMY: So, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

JEFF: Yeah, so if some of the people who have been affected by this earthquake tragedy start to gather in the streets and start to protest in Venezuela, that is something that would be pretty unprecedented. We would see those types of people to get out on the street and try to protest what they say has been decades of incompetence, and decades of not caring for the people, ignoring building codes and enriching themselves, and caring less about the people of Venezuela. So this is a turning point in the country's history, for sure. And it comes, you know, just a few months after the deposing of Nicolas Maduro, the president, when the US held that operation to take him into custody and bring him into the United States to face charges.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, we'll have to pause there for today, but thanks so much for getting us caught up. Always appreciate you keeping such a close eye on the region for us.

JEFF: No problem, Jimmy.

250th Independence Day in the United States

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: The United States is celebrating its 250th anniversary on Saturday.

Major celebrations are planned in Washington, D.C., and across the country.

President Donald Trump has hyped the milestone since his election in 2024, promising renovations and celebrations in the nation's capital.

A “Great American State Fair” is underway on the National Mall, with booths representing all 56 states and territories.

The Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool has also undergone a $14 million renovation ahead of the celebrations, an attempt to make the water appear more blue.

More events are planned for Saturday, including an IndyCar race and an attempt to set a world record for the largest fireworks display.

At the same time, groups including Women's March are planning protests against the Trump administration.

The eastern United States is also expected to experience a major heat wave over the holiday weekend, particularly in the heavily populated Mid-Atlantic corridor from New York to Washington.

Finally, and unfortunately, Independence Day is also typically one of the highest-risk days of the year for shootings and drunk driving.

Impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte

Information compiled by Clara Ip Wai Nam

JIMMY: The Philippine Senate will begin the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte on Monday.

The Senate will sit as an impeachment court starting at 2 p.m. local time.

Lawmakers in the House of Representatives voted to impeach Duterte in May. She’s accused of misusing public funds, accumulating unexplained wealth and threatening President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the first lady and a former House speaker.

Duterte has denied the allegations.

Now, if she is convicted, she would be removed from office and barred from holding public office, putting her planned 2028 presidential run at risk.

A two-thirds majority of the 24-member Senate, or at least 16 votes, is needed to convict her.

Of course, the trial is likely to deepen the political divide between the Marcos and Duterte camps and comes just weeks after the Senate replaced Duterte ally Alan Peter Cayetano with Sherwin Gatchalian as Senate president. 

Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a Duterte ally and potential senator-judge, is also wanted by the International Criminal Court and remains at large after disappearing following chaos and gunfire at the Senate in May. 

Police say they'll enforce his arrest warrant if he appears at the Senate.

Israel attends UN policing conference

Information compiled by Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: An Israeli delegation led by the country’s Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will be in New York starting Tuesday.

They’re expected to attend the United Nation’s bi-annual Chiefs of Police Summit.

The meetings bring together law enforcement leaders from around the world to discuss international peace, security and development.

Ben-Gvir has a history of making racist remarks about Palestinians and Arabs, leading some rights groups to call for his arrest or for the United States to deny him entry.

Israel's participation comes as its government faces criticism for occupying and expanding into Arab territories in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria.

Ben-Gvir has also taken part in marches by extremist Jewish groups and made statements supporting Jewish supremacy over Arabs.

Now, the United States is not expected to take action against Ben-Gvir or the Israeli delegation because of its longstanding alliance with Israel, one that has strengthened further under the Trump administration.

Finally, despite New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani’s previous threats of using his authority to execute international arrest warrants against Israeli officials accused of involvement in war crimes, he’s yet to comment on Ben-Gvir’s visit.

Several Western countries, including the United Kingdom and France, have barred Ben-Gvir from entering and have frozen his assets.

Nominations open to replace Starmer as Labour leader

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Britain's Labour Party will begin accepting nominations next Thursday to choose its next leader.

The winner will replace Keir Starmer as party leader and become the country's next prime minister.

Starmer announced his resignation in an emotional speech after facing sustained pressure.

Since winning a mandate with a landslide election victory in 2024, he has faced criticism over his leadership style and a perceived slow pace of change.

Pressure grew after Labour suffered major election losses across England, Scotland and Wales in May.

Starmer’s longtime rival, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, is seen as the leading candidate after winning a seat in Parliament.

If no other candidates enter the race, Burnham would become Labour leader on July 17.

If that happens, the handover from Starmer to Burnham, in which the new prime minister would seek permission from King Charles to form a government, would likely take place on Monday, July 20. 

Finally, Burnham has already begun to set out his vision for the future.

That vision includes moving part of the executive outside of London to Manchester, and a new program of social housing construction.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Owen Bonertz, Clara Ip Wai Nam, Ahmed Namatalla, and David Wyllie. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe