This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 16, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the U.S. renewing its blockade and strikes in Iran, Colombia’s new Congress getting started, former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro appearing in a U.S. court, protests in Peru, and the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

US resumes strikes on Iran – Houthis strike Saudi Arabia

Interview featuring Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll check in on the war in Iran and a Houthi strike in Saudi Arabia. For more on that I’ve got the lead of our Middle East and Africa desk, Ahmed Namatalla. 

JIMMY: Hello, Ahmed.

AHMED: Hello, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Well, Ahmed, I know you've got a lot to cover, so let's just jump right in. What's been going on in the war?

AHMED: In short, the U.S. and Iran have resumed attacking each other. This cannot be compared with the height of the war a couple of months ago, but it is significant in that it is disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and it is leading to fears that an all-out war may resume. We have not seen similar attacks as [earlier] during the war, but it's still concerning to many. We're seeing, as a result, oil prices climb, and some Gulf countries start to activate their warnings to their citizens because of Iranian attacks.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

AHMED: Well, most significantly in this latest round of escalation is that we're starting to see fatalities. So, Iran is reporting dozens of people killed, civilians and military personnel, in U.S. air strikes, which have been occurring along Iran's southern coast, along the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. says that it's striking Iran because Iran has been attacking ships going through the waterway. Ship traffic through the waterway has noticeably increased, or it had noticeably increased before this latest round of violence, but Iran made it clear that ships had to abide by its control of the waterway, and if they did not coordinate with its military on passage, that they would then be unauthorized. The U.S. obviously does not agree with this. It told ships that they can go ahead and cross, and that Iran does not have control over the waterway. At which point, Iran did what it warned that it was going to do, which is attack those ships. Multiple ships have been attacked, upon which the U.S. started to strike Iran. Iran then started to retaliate by attacking Gulf countries. Now, these attacks, again, have been at much lower frequency and impact than we saw at the height of the war, but they are nonetheless significant.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions have you seen to all this?

AHMED: What's notable is no one's really scrambling to try to contain what's happening beyond some, you know, just routine protocol statements that you normally see, you know, condemnation of violence, whether from the Pakistani mediator of the ceasefire that appears to have collapsed, or other regional and world powers. Beyond these condemnations, we're not really seeing much, and that probably reflects the reduced level of shock about what's happening right now because it's simply happened before, and it really just becomes something that people are getting used to, governments are getting used to, and I think it also reflects the fact that no really believes that this is going to turn into an all-out war again, because of how much damage was inflicted in the first round on all sides. So the lack of reaction, I think, is notable – relatively speaking,lack of reaction – and it gives us something to look forward to, which is probably more of the same level of violence, low level, relatively speaking, along with a lot of rhetoric, some of which can be shocking. But it's just having a lesser effect the more that it happens and does not materialize when you have the president of the United States threatening to attack energy and transportation facilities in Iran, which would fall under suspicion of committing war crimes under international law, when you have the president threatening to, or actually announcing, that the United States would charge tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz – the same action that it said Iran can never do and no one could ever do – and then backtrack on that just a little bit later. You also have Iran threatening to do things like, you know, retaliate immediately and with force, and we don't see Iran delivering on those threats. The world just becomes less shocked the more it happens, and we could probably see more of that, along with these attacks. Who knows for how long? But it's clear that neither side is really interested in what the rest of the world is interested in, which is, you know, a permanent end to this conflict and a return, simply a return, to pre-war status quo, which is the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AHMED: What we need to be watching out for next is the unintended consequences of this low-level fighting. There are things that, you know, while both sides can control, you know, both sides can control their actions. They're choosing right now not to attack capital cities like they did during the war. They're choosing not to get Israel involved again in the war. They're choosing not to bomb energy and transportation infrastructure. They can control that, and they can choose to, you know, bomb rural areas or bomb areas that are not going to cost many lives. What they cannot do is control everything else. And so, what we saw, for example, is the reignition of the conflict in some ways between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis of Yemen. Saudi Arabia, a major U.S. ally, that fought in Yemen for years and achieved very little. The Iran-backed Houthis, on the other hand, were able to consolidate control over a portion of northwest Yemen, including the capital Sanaa. And so they had a ceasefire for about four years now that experienced some shaking just a few days ago when the Saudi-backed government of Yemen – that is no longer based in the capital but another city, Aden – allegedly bombed Sanaa Airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing, and you know that the Houthis accused of Saudi Arabia, which certainly has the capabilities and backs the government that claims to have done this, of doing that, and retaliated by sending some missiles over Saudi Arabia, none of which really caused much of an impact as far as was made public. And so this is significant in that we really haven't seen something like this in multiple years. But in the big picture, you know, if it does not get contained, is something that can fester and, you know, you could possibly see the Houthis start to target maritime traffic through Bab al-Mandab Strait heading to the Suez Canal, possibly target Saudi Arabia oil infrastructure there, which is within close range of their weapons. And they have proved that this is something that they could do. Saudi Arabia can resume air strikes in Yemen, which have killed thousands over the years. This is something that could really get out of control if it's not contained, and it is connected to an extent to what's happening between the U.S. and Iran. Another flashpoint you could see reigniting is Israel and Lebanon, with Israel's military campaign and occupation of southern Lebanon. These are all things that can go wrong, which have not gone terribly wrong yet, but certainly have the potential as we move forward with this U.S.-Iran conflict going unresolved. The longer it goes unresolved, the higher likelihood that it can manifest itself in ways that both parties cannot control. Jimmy, one more flashpoint that could really ignite again as a result of this war – you could see it happening in Iraq, where militant activity against U.S. interests and U.S.-allied Kurds in Iraq that's been dormant since the end of the war. But it's also something that can reignite, and so there are multiple points around the Middle East, where we can see this war having an impact and really deteriorating the security situation.

JIMMY: Well, Ahmed, we'll pause there for today, but I suspect we'll be talking about this again in the future. Until then, thank you so much for your time and for keeping an eye on things for us. Appreciate you.

AHMED: Thank you, Jimmy.

Colombian Congress sworn in

Information compiled by Clara Ip Wai Nam

JIMMY: Colombia’s newly elected congress will be sworn in on Monday.

It will be a governing test for President-elect Abelardo De la Espriella, who won the presidency without a legislative majority to support his agenda.

The March legislative elections produced a divided congress, with no party winning a majority.

That leaves traditional and centrist parties with significant influence over any governing coalition.

De la Espriella is set to take office on Aug. 7 after narrowly defeating leftist Iván Cepeda in the June presidential runoff.

He campaigned on ending peace negotiations with armed groups, expanding oil and gas production, lowering taxes and reducing the size of the state.

Now, without a congressional majority, he will need support from liberals, conservatives and smaller parties to advance those plans.

That could force him to scale back some of his proposals.

Lawmakers may also face an immediate decision over the president-elect’s request to take the presidential oath at a military installation outside Bogotá.

That would require lawmakers to authorize temporarily relocating Congress.

Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro appears in US court

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is scheduled to appear in a U.S. court on Wednesday.

He faces narcoterrorism and drug trafficking charges.

U.S. forces arrested Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, during a raid in Caracas in January and brought them to the United States.

Prosecutors allege Maduro led a corrupt government that used its power to protect and promote illegal activity.

A judge refused to dismiss the drug trafficking charges, and both Maduro and Flores have remained in custody since January.

The hearing was originally scheduled for June 30 but was postponed until July 22.

Now, the case could test U.S. jurisdiction over former heads of state, as critics have said Maduro and Flores’ capture contravened international law. 

Protests are expected outside the New York City courthouse, where supporters also gathered during Maduro’s court appearance in March.

Protests planned against Keiko Fujimori in Cusco, Peru

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Protests are planned in Cusco, Peru, on Wednesday.

Local lawmakers are calling on people to take to the streets after claiming the presidential election was “systematically rigged.”

Just days before the runoff, Peru’s electoral authorities raised eyebrows by declaring that votes from abroad must be physically sent instead of via a ballot scanning system. 

The Organization of American States questioned it but later said no irregularities were found.

Election officials declared Keiko Fujimori the winner by fewer than 50,000 votes after weeks of counting.

The results highlighted deep political divisions across Peru.

In fact, Fujimori’s opponent in that election, left-wing Congressman Roberto Sánchez, has also called for widespread protests on July 28 – the day Fujimori is set to be sworn in as president.

He has called for overseas votes to be annulled and has threatened not to recognize Fujimori's presidency.

Fujimori is set to take office facing a fractured country that has rarely seen stability in its politics.

Rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Dinner

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner will be held next Friday in Washington, D.C.

The event was originally scheduled for April but was interrupted after an armed suspect attempted to storm through security at the venue.

Prosecutors allege the suspect was armed with a shotgun and a handgun and was attempting to assassinate President Donald Trump before being taken into custody following an exchange of gunfire with a U.S. Secret Service agent.

Now, next week’s dinner will be held under heightened security.

Trump has confirmed he will attend and speak.

He has also pointed to the attempted attack as support for his planned, but controversial, White House ballroom, arguing it would provide a more secure venue.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Clara Ip Wai Nam, Michael Archer, Jeff Landset, and Alex Moore. Our interview featured editor Ahmed Namatalla and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe