This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 23, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got catastrophic flooding in Chile, an election in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, a State of the Nation Address in the Philippines, an inauguration for Peru’s new president, and a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Chile floods

Interview featuring Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the terrible flooding in Chile. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Latin America coverage, Senior Editor Jeff Landset.

JIMMY: Hi Jeff.

JEFF: Hi Jimmy. How are you?

JIMMY: I'm well. Hope you're doing well today as well. Thanks for taking your time today to speak with us. I know you've been following the flooding in Chile rather closely, and I'm hoping you can get us all caught up on what we need to know. So, you know, what's been going on?

JEFF Yeah, so over the past week or so, they have seen some pretty significant flooding and actually even some snow due to this atmospheric river that has hit the northern and central areas of Chile. The areas that have seen the most damage have been Coquimbo [region] and the Huasco province. They've been some of the most affected. Some of these areas that we've been talking about have gotten more than a foot of rain just in the past week, which is fairly uncommon for this area. And this isn't just in the rural areas. This is pretty widespread, and even Santiago has seen power outages and pretty terrible weather over these past couple of days. And then, obviously, this has not been without some tragedy. There have been more than a dozen people who have been killed in this storm. Thousands of homes have major damage, and then tens of thousands of people have been told to leave their homes or can't stay where they usually live, so this is a pretty awful situation for anybody in the area. And then, obviously, one of the things that has made this just such a bad storm, potentially one of the worst storms in decades for Chile, has been the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has essentially turbocharged this atmospheric river.

JIMMY: And what's the latest been? Have you seen any recent developments?

JEFF: Yes. So over the past week or so, the officials have come out every day with new death tolls and the number of people who have been injured and the number of houses that have been damaged or are under investigation, but actually in the past 24 hours or so, we have seen that three people who were missing in a snowy canyon for six days in the metropolitan region were actually found alive on Wednesday. This was due to a break in the weather on that day, and there has been a lot of news coverage about how this is one of the triumphs of Chile in the time of tragedy that we've seen in the storm.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions have you seen to the situation?

JEFF: At this point, it has been about mostly search and rescue, and we have seen a lot of people just trying to keep their heads above water, almost literally. But we also are starting to see a couple of local officials who have made it clear that they're not happy with the response, the emergency response that they've had. The mayor of the capital of Coquimbo basically said their emergency plan didn't work. Their water supply has not worked for several days, and she says that it may not come into place until Saturday. So there may be residents of La Serena that may not have water until the weekend. And so yeah – so at this point, it's almost too early to start second guessing what happened, but a few of the officials there have already said that they aren't happy with how things were handled.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

JEFF: Well, obviously we've seen that break in the weather in the past day or so, but we are also on the lookout for another significant amount of rain heading to the country that is supposed to be happening Thursday night local time. So if there's going to be more rain on the way – and that means more flooding and more damage for people who probably can't take much more of this rain and flooding and snow that the country has seen – so as that happens, that is one thing to look for, as well as, like I said before, El Niño is turbocharging all of these weather phenomenon. So, just at the beginning of the El Niño phenomenon starting, we may see storms like this for several months now that have been very deadly and destructive.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, we'll pause there for today, but again, thanks so much for your time and for keeping such a close eye on things for us. Appreciate you.

JEFF: No problem. Thank you.

Pakistan-administered Kashmir elections

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: The first phase of Pakistan-administered Kashmir’s regional legislative elections will begin on Monday.

It comes after weeks of unrest.

The vote was originally scheduled to take place in a single day, but election officials decided to split it into three phases so security could be ensured “in all divisions in sufficient numbers.”

The change follows deadly protests by the banned Joint Awami Action Committee, or JAAC.

The group has called for the abolition of seats in the regional legislature reserved for refugees from India-controlled Jammu and Kashmir.

Now, Monday’s voting will take place in the Mirpur division.

The second phase is scheduled for Aug. 2 in Muzaffarabad and the refugee constituencies.

The final phase will be held on Aug. 10 in Poonch district.

Campaigning is already underway, but authorities remain on high alert, particularly in Poonch, where JAAC activists and supporters have continued holding sit-ins.

Philippines’ State of the Nation Address

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will deliver his fifth State of the Nation Address on Monday.

It’ll take place at the House of Representatives in Manila.

The annual speech comes as the country faces an energy crisis and ongoing political turmoil.

Earlier this year, Marcos declared a state of national energy emergency, calling soaring fuel prices an imminent threat to the country's energy supply.

The presidential office says this year's event will be “simple yet dignified,” in line with government austerity measures.

Of course, meanwhile, the Senate is holding an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte over allegations including misuse of public funds, bribery and making threats against Marcos.

Ahead of Monday's address, police have stepped up security, with more than 20,000 officers set to be deployed across Manila.

Inauguration of Peruvian President-elect Keiko Fujimori

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Keiko Fujimori will be sworn in as Peru's president on Tuesday, the country's Independence Day.

The conservative People's Force leader won the election by a margin of about 50,000 votes.

She was declared the winner nearly a month after the runoff election.

Her opponent, left-wing candidate Roberto Sánchez, alleged the vote had been seriously compromised, citing supposed irregularities in voting abroad. He also said he would not recognize her government.

Fujimori made public safety a central issue during her campaign, pledging to tackle rising organized crime.

She takes office after a period of protracted political instability in Peru.

One that has resulted in eight presidents over the past decade.

Now, Keiko Fujimori is the daughter of the disgraced former President Alberto Fujimori.

He was eventually jailed for crimes against humanity and remains a controversial figure in Peruvian politics.

No doubt something Keiko Fujimori had in mind as she sought to soften her image during the campaign.

After her victory, she called for unity and said she had learned from her past mistakes.

Invariably, one of her first challenges will be rebuilding trust in an institution that has been severely eroded and undermined by a decade of instability.

US Federal Reserve meeting

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking body will begin a two-day meeting on Tuesday.

The Federal Open Market Committee will assess the U.S. economy and decide whether to change interest rates.

At its last meeting in June, the committee decided unanimously to hold interest rates steady.

Officials said the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remained strong but pointed to inflation and elevated uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

Recent economic data has been mixed, with concerns about gas prices, the sustainability of job growth, and consumer sentiment.

Now, the committee can choose to raise, hold or lower interest rates, with holding being the most likely course of action.

Although there is a growing chorus of voices calling for a hike in rates to push back against persistent inflation.

Finally, the conflict with Iran and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz are expected to factor into the committee's decision making, but could be offset by robust employment and economic activity data.

JIMMY: One final note for you, the podcast will be off next week. So, our next episode will be out on August 6. 

In the meantime, we are a 24/7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on Bluesky, Threads or Mastodon where we’ll still be posting breaking news.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Vivian Wang, Hua Hsieh, James Morgan, and David Wyllie. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe