This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Aug. 13, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the deadly earthquake in Colombia, Independence Day in Pakistan, the migrant influx in Spain’s Ceuta, several primary elections in the US, and tariffs on Canada possibly kicking in. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Colombia’s earthquake

Interview featuring Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the devastating earthquake that struck Colombia. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Latin America coverage, Factal Senior Editor Jeff Landset.

JIMMY: Hello, Jeff.

JEFF: Hi, Jimmy. How are you?

JIMMY: I am well, and I'm glad you're here with us today. Looking forward to getting caught up on this situation in Colombia. So, what can you tell us about the situation?

JEFF: Yeah, pretty devastating earthquake this week. Monday morning, at about 7:30 local time, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck in the state of Choco in Colombia. It has left at least 265 people dead and more than 3,700 others hurt. We have confirmation that hundreds more are missing. The earthquake was felt as far away as Bogota, but we saw most of its damage, which was quite extensive, in places like Pereira or Quibido or Manizales, and especially in Cali, which is one of the bigger cities in the country. The earthquake was actually so strong it even jump-started a volcanic eruption.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments?

JEFF: Well, search and rescue is now underway, and a lot of the area's infrastructure has been damaged or even destroyed. Multiple airports have been shut down, and we've even seen multiple roads buried under landslides that were caused by this earthquake. Communication is also very tough as well. Search and rescue teams from all over the world have come to the country to try to get people who have been trapped under the rubble of some of these collapsed buildings, and that has been going on now for days. We've also seen a ton of heroic acts in this process, and a massive amount of outpouring of support via donations of, you know, food and water, and even things like blankets or generators.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to all this?

JEFF: Well, leaders from all over the world have expressed sympathy for what happened, even as far away as Ukraine and even the Philippines – and that is despite party lines. This is actually the first week of the new president's term. So, Abelardo de la Espriella took office on Friday, and he ran on a far-right platform, but we've seen sympathy from some far-left world leaders, like Brazil's Lula. And we've already seen de la Espriella take this by the horns. He is committed to helping the victims, he says. He has already offered subsidies for rental purposes for the people who've been affected by the earthquake, and he has ordered the suspension of their taxes and utility bills while this is ongoing.

JIMMY: Well, considering all this, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

JEFF: Well, we should be watching for the search and rescue that continues to go throughout the night and day in Colombia, especially in the city of Cali. If we see more and more people being pulled out of this rubble, unfortunately, as time goes on, they are less likely to be alive. But as we saw from the earthquake in nearby Venezuela, the human spirit can survive under this rubble for a surprising long time. So keep an eye for that, as well as how the rest of the search and rescue and recovery efforts go in terms of rebuilding what was damaged or destroyed in this terrible tragedy.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, we'll have to pause there for today. But again, thank you so much for your time and for keeping us informed on what's happening. Appreciate you.

JEFF: No problem. Thank you, Jimmy.

Pakistan Independence Day

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Pakistan will observe its 79th Independence Day on Friday, marking the end of British rule over the nation.

This year's celebrations come amid unrest in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, where regional elections have been marred by violent protests and allegations of vote rigging.

Meanwhile, clashes between security forces and militants in Balochistan province earlier this week left nearly a dozen militants dead.

Now, police in Islamabad have announced traffic restrictions in the capital for today and tomorrow around planned celebrations at the recently completed Marka-e-Haq Monument.

Officials say a "mega concert" is also planned in Lahore tonight, followed by a fireworks show at midnight.

Authorities warn of another migrant influx at Ceuta

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Authorities in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta are on alert for another possible influx of migrants on Saturday.

Last month, thousands of people coming mainly from Morocco crossed into the territory in northern Africa.

The influx created a humanitarian crisis.

Most of those who crossed have since returned to Morocco, though many remain in Ceuta and some managed to reach mainland Spain.

The incident led Italy to temporarily suspend the border-free Schengen arrangement in an effort to prevent migrants from arriving in the country. That, despite the two countries not sharing a border. 

Now, as Ceuta tries to return to normal, calls for another border crossing from Morocco have been circulating on social media.

Spanish authorities have responded by deploying 300 additional riot police and 2,000 soldiers to the territory.

The Civil Guard also temporarily suspended new leave for officers stationed in Ceuta and Melilla.

Meanwhile, Spain placed temporary controls at all borders for travelers coming from Italy after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni refused to lift the suspension until at least Aug. 15.

Primaries in Alaska, Florida, Wyoming

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Voters in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming will cast ballots in a number of competitive primary contests on Tuesday.

Voters will choose candidates for a range of offices, including U.S. Senate, House, governor and lieutenant governor.

Those who advance will compete in the Nov. 3 general election.

Florida is likely to draw the most attention, with closely watched races for the Senate, House and governor.

November's contests there will also include a special election for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio and the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Democrats are hoping to gain ground in a state that has moved increasingly Republican in recent elections.

Meanwhile, Wyoming's primary for its open at-large House seat could effectively determine the state's next representative in the deep-red state.

Finally, Alaska's nonpartisan top-four system could produce unusual matchups in the general election.

US tariffs on Canada could kick in

Information compiled by Dre Grant

JIMMY: Canadian negotiators are working to secure a deal before new U.S. tariffs on some goods could take effect on Wednesday.

President Donald Trump has proposed tariffs of 50 percent over reported discrimination against American-made cars, alcohol and dairy goods.

The tariffs would use a nearly century-old provision of the Tariff Act of 1930 and would come on top of duties already placed on some Canadian goods.

A series of high-level meetings have given Canadian leaders confidence that a deal can be reached before the new tariffs take effect.

Canadian officials have told U.S. negotiators that many concerns could be addressed if relief comes on goods already under levy.

They have also said, however, that failure to provide relief could politically hamstring Prime Minister Mark Carney, leading to further escalation on this front of the global trade war.

Now, aluminum prices have risen nearly 50 percent since tariffs were placed on the Canadian sector.

Carney says much of that cost has been passed on to U.S. consumers, exacerbating hikes as 44 percent of aluminum demand in the U.S. is met by Canadian imports.

Canada has also been left out of bilateral trade negotiations the U.S. is conducting with Mexico, as the administration hopes to reconfigure deals with both nations as part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA

Carney says Canada is not interested in a piecemeal deal.

That’s likely because the new tariffs could further strain relationships with provincial leaders who hold power over bans on specific goods.

Finally, a poll found 62 percent of Canadians support intensifying retaliatory tariffs against the United States.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Joe Veyera, Jess Fino, David Wyllie, and Dre Grant. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe