This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Sept. 3, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the devastating floods in Nepal, a rail strike in Italy, the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our monthly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Nepal flooding

Writing by Mai Hoang and Halima Mansoor

Interview featuring Halima Mansoor

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at the devastating flooding in Nepal. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Halima Mansoor.

JIMMY: Hello, Halima.

HALIMA: Hey, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Thanks for being with us today, but sorry it's for such a tragic story. But you know, let's not waste any time [and] just jump right in. What can you tell us about this flooding?

HALIMA: So first, I just want to preface all this. What we will discuss today is disturbing as we unpack things for our audience. So pretty much everyone has heard or seen or read what happened in Nepal last week as flash floods, or as flooding. We're one week out now, so experts have a better idea of what happened, even if there is no clarity on the why. So on Aug. 26, a section of a mountain and the glacier on top of it in Langtang, Nepal, near the border with Tibet, just collapsed. It collapsed with the intensity of a magnitude 5.2 earthquake. So, it took down rock and ice that could fill 100 American football stadiums, according to the New York Times. The energy that was released by that slope failure, it crashed the debris into meltwater, rock, and ice. And that debris – that's what we call the flood – it moved at [its] peak at 100 miles per hour for roughly 60 miles, with obviously devastating impact in Nepal's Rasuwah, and other areas, and also in Tibet. So, as of Wednesday, we have more than 1,200 people confirmed dead, and 4,200 others are unaccounted for, just in Nepal. And in Tibet, we have more than 20 people dead and nearly 600 still missing.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

HALIMA: Well, some 20,000 security personnel and other, numerous other, volunteers just on the Nepal side are involved in what I'd call one of the most disturbing, risky, and vast rescue operations the country has seen in years. They have rescued nearly 12,000 people so far. Some of those still missing are believed to be trapped in tunnels linked to construction projects, so hydropower projects that line the river in Trishuli in Nepal. Those tunnels got sealed by mud and rocks with the event, and teams are now trying to drill in. They have pumped air inside, but as of the weekend, hundreds are still believed to be trapped in there. And while all of this is happening, there were two barrier lakes that formed during these floods, so those pose a separate but rather large risk or threat to rescue workers, to the displaced survivors, to the people trapped in the tunnels. And last Friday we saw that the barrier lake was starting to overflow, so they had to halt rescue work because that made the threat of new floods very real. So everyone has been moving fast and trying to move safely, but it is still pretty much a day-to-day situation.

JIMMY: What about reactions? What kind of response have you seen to the situation?

HALIMA: There's grief, there's a lot of trauma, and there's also the more common state-level responses of sending money, sending rescue workers. And Nepal has been a bit shy to accept help, but we have seen India send in several plane loads of help. The other part of the reaction is, who do we blame? And that's complicated. Geophysicists and engineers are saying there were some warning signs. The rock outcrop at that glacier moved more than a foot before the collapse in the weeks prior, but the same experts also said that the rock failure itself was so sudden that it makes it hard to predict such events using our existing monitoring techniques. So even the experts arguing for or against climate change causing disasters are saying that right now it's impossible to blame it on one particular cause, even if we are trying to find someone to blame to make some sense of this enormous tragedy.

JIMMY: Well, I know it's hard to guess, but you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

HALIMA: I think we should keep in mind this is a disaster with a long-haul impact, so everybody needs to pace themselves. The death toll itself is expected to be in the thousands by some accounts. Families waiting might never get their loved ones back, even for burial, or it may take years to finish the DNA identification work of the people they have found, the bodies they have found. And then there's the cost. We can watch for people or countries donating, or providing funds, but at this point, the cost of it is in billions of dollars, according to Nepal's estimates. But even rebuilding or repairing are still well further out. So what we can watch for right now is, really, in some ways, it really is what will other countries learn from this, including India, whose Sikkim state saw a billion-dollar dam wiped out in minutes by a glacier lake outburst a few years ago. And of course, what we are watching for, also, is again the more day-to-day rescue operation and watching for more flooding if the barrier lakes overflow. I don't think this is one of those stories where we can end in hope exactly, but we do have experts who say that the people trapped in those hydropower tunnels might actually make it out safely, and that's because those tunnels are designed to withstand disaster. So at this point, it's more a matter of getting in than having to remove debris of collapsed structures on top of people who are still in the tunnels. So I guess that's something that we can watch for with some optimism at this point.

JIMMY: Well, Halima, we'll need to pause there for today, ut as usual, thank you so much for your time and for getting us all up to speed on this situation. Appreciate you.

HALIMA: Thank you for having me, Jimmy.

Nationwide rail strike in Italy

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Italian rail workers are set to strike for 24 hours, starting Monday evening. 

Several organizations including trade unions have scheduled the action, citing workplace safety concerns and job security. 

The organizations allege there were also failures to respond to requests for a renewal of their collective bargaining agreement. 

The rail strike marks the first mass stoppage this fall to impact the Italian transport sector as workers continue to air long-held grievances.

Now, severe disruptions are expected on passenger rail nationwide as drivers and on-board staff strike at Trenitalia Tper, Trenitalia and Mercitalia Rail. 

Freight rail services are also expected to be impacted. 

A separate stoppage affecting freight operator Captrain Italia over the same period is also expected to cause disruption.

GOP midterm convention in Dallas

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Thousands of Republicans are expected to gather in Dallas for a convention starting Wednesday.

The event will mark the GOP's first-ever convention for midterm elections.

Still, experts expect it will be more like a large campaign rally than a traditional convention as the party seeks to gain momentum amid voter frustrations with the economy and the Iran war. 

Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said the event will be "a Trumpapalooza.”

Now, police say road closures are expected around the American Airlines Center in Dallas’ Victory Park neighborhood from Sept. 7 to 11.

Additional closures are said to be possible with “little to no notice.” 

Local, regional, state and federal authorities are coordinating security in light of the convention’s high-profile attendees, including President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance.

They’re also preparing for possible protests, with city officials estimating some $1.8 million will be spent on security.

Activists have already announced plans to demonstrate outside the center on the second day of the convention.

Peak of Atlantic hurricane season

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: One of the least active Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent memory will reach its peak next Thursday.

Although the number of named storms is on par with other years, those storms have been weak and mostly dissipated within 24 hours. 

Due to this season’s powerful El Niño weather phenomenon, much of the Atlantic Ocean is hostile for tropical development. 

Of course, the majority of tropical storm activity actually happens after the historic peak date of Sept. 10, even if this year doesn’t produce a storm strong enough to become a hurricane.

Now, even though most tropical storms that form in the Atlantic or the Gulf this year aren’t likely to have enough real estate to strengthen into major hurricanes, they could still bring heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides to the southern United States, Mexico and Central America. 

Tropical Storm Edouard and the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly have already brought several inches of rain and dangerous wind gusts to Texas and Louisiana.

25th anniversary of 9/11

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Finally, next week, the United States will mark the 25th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks with a series of commemorative events nationwide. 

Gatherings of people and heightened security are likely at many of the events across the country, including New York City. 

President Donald Trump will observe the anniversary at the Pentagon in Arlington, Va., while Vice President JD Vance will be at the New York commemoration.

And while New York City police have not noted any specific or credible threats to the ceremony, the city’s counterterrorism force has indicated in the past that threat levels were considered “elevated” on the anniversary.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani is expected to attend the 9/11 Memorial and Museum’s annual remembrance event, despite an online petition calling for him to abstain.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Halima Mansoor, Mai Hoang, James Morgan, Theresa Seiger, Jeff Landset, and Vivian Wang. Our interview featured editor Halima Mansoor and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe