This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Sept. 10, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got war escalation in Yemen, the BRICS summit, parliamentary elections in Sweden and Russia, and Mexico’s Independence Day. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our monthly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Yemen war escalation

Interview featuring Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the war in Yemen. For more on that, here’s the lead for our Middle East and Africa coverage, Ahmed Namatalla.

JIMMY: Hello, Ahmed.

AHMED: Hi, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Thanks for taking time to talk with us today. I know you've been watching the situation with Yemen closely, and well, looking forward to you catching us up on what's going on with the war.

AHMED: What we're seeing right now is a significant escalation in the fighting between Yemen's Houthis, who are allied and backed by Iran, and Yemen's internationally recognized government, which is allied and backed by Saudi Arabia, and by extension the United States. The fighting appears to be in rural areas close to Bab el-Mandeb, which is the southern entrance and exit point to the Red Sea. It likely involves Saudi Arabian Air Force, but Saudi Arabia has yet to take responsibility for direct involvement in the fighting. This comes as the escalation continues in the US-Iran War front, and the two are significantly increasing levels of violence around the region and posing a threat for even other fronts to open up.

JIMMY: What about the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

AHMED: The most notable developments have been the Houthis attacking Saudi Arabian territory, including oil assets in the country's southwestern region that is close to the border and close to the Yemeni territory that is controlled by the Houthis. This has disrupted Saudi Arabia's oil production and exports. It has also prompted Saudi Arabia to threaten to retaliate, although we have not seen that yet – at least not on a wide scale. The Houthis are saying that they're defending their territory against Saudi Arabian attacks and attacks by the government of Yemen, which is allied with Saudi Arabia, especially after strikes that killed, according to the Houthis, dozens of people in a prison, and also attacks on other civilian sites.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to all this?

AHMED: Well, so far the United States has issued statements supporting Saudi Arabia and the government of Yemen against the Houthis. That is to be expected. Meanwhile, Iran has done the same for its Houthi allies, but both sides have stopped short of declaring any sort of military involvement or financial support, any sort of direct intervention in this conflict.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

AHMED: Well, what I think we should be watching out for is the convergence of these two wars that are happening in the Persian Gulf region – the war in Yemen and the war in Iran – ahead of U.S. elections. We're seeing a clear push by Iran and its allies in Yemen to respond forcefully to attacks on their territory. They are escalating, and one can deduce from that, that they're not expecting forceful retaliation ahead of the elections in the United States. We have the potential of the Houthis targeting even higher profile Saudi Arabian assets, and they issued a statement today threatening that much. Iran has also said that it would target higher profile U.S. assets around the region if the escalation continues. And so, both conflicts definitely have the potential to become more violent and even intertwined because of the alliances that were formed even before they were started.

JIMMY: Well, Ahmed, as usual, we'll pause there for today. But again, thanks for your time, thanks for keeping us plugged in, and appreciate you.

AHMED: Thank you, Jimmy.

BRICS summit

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: India will host and chair the 18th BRICS summit on Saturday in New Delhi. 

This year’s summit comes 20 years after the group was originally founded in 2006. 

The group is now made up of 11 countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Indonesia. Together, they represent roughly 49 percent of the world’s population. 

Of course, Iran is also set to join the new BRICS development bank, potentially offering development financing to a war-embroiled nation under heavy U.S. sanctions. 

Now, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, among other leaders, are all expected to attend.

That, amid growing global tensions in their home countries. 

Putin is expected to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the summit.

Recent public meetings between China and Iran’s leaders have been low-key to avoid the appearance of collaboration ahead of Xi’s planned trip to the United States. 

As for things in the host city, approximately 7,000 security personnel, including police and paramilitary forces, will be posted around Bharat Mandapam and nearby hotels, the airport and other high-trafficked areas. 

Police are also monitoring social media closely for threats, while strengthening anti-terror measures.

Finally, several roads in the Indian capital are scheduled to be wholly or partially closed to accommodate the event.

Sweden parliamentary election

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Sweden will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday.

They’ll be Sweden’s first parliamentary election in four years after the 2022 vote knocked Social Democrat Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson from power despite her party winning a plurality of seats. 

Following the 2022 race, a minority right-wing government was formed with Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson serving as prime minister. 

Now, polling projections for the vote show Sweden’s Social Democrat-led center-left opposition emerging victorious, signalling a likely return of Andersson to the prime minister’s office. 

If the projections hold, the right-wing Sweden Democrats would return to the opposition after holding power for the first time after years of being parliamentary outcasts. 

While in power, the Sweden Democrats moved to pass multiple sweeping immigration reform laws, enacting key long-term policy planks for that party.

Mexico Independence Day

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Mexico and its citizens around the world will celebrate the country’s independence day on Tuesday.

As usual, there will be traditional parades and an official ceremony in Mexico City.

In fact, hundreds of thousands of people are expected to gather at the Zócalo, with the main celebration taking place outside the National Palace.

Previous years have seen as many as 400,000 attendees. 

Now, the majority of crowds will likely gather between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m.

That’s about the time when President Claudia Sheinbaum will lead a traditional ceremony from the balcony of the National Palace known as the “grito,” or “shout” in English – the national cry of independence.

There will be concerts and fireworks that evening and a military parade the following day. 

Authorities will carry out inspections in Mexico City in areas with the highest production, storage, and sale of fireworks.

That, due to the risk involved in handling these materials during the national holidays. 

Metro passengers will be checked at all station entrances as part of the “Zero Fireworks” operation. 

Police in cities like Puebla and Chihuahua have announced the deployment of additional personnel in hotspots such as bars, restaurants and squares. 

Road closures are also expected on the day.

Finally, the yearly parade in New Jersey for the Mexican diaspora has been postponed indefinitely amid fears of ICE officers’ presence.

Russian parliamentary elections

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Russia is preparing to hold elections starting next Friday.

They’ll select State Duma and regional officials amid rampant speculation over a possible mass mobilization event following the vote.

Of course, the parliamentary elections in Russia are expected to be neither free nor fair, with President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party set to reassert its dominance in what is likely to be pitched as an expression of popular support for the war in Ukraine. 

Still, a total of 450 seats are up for grabs in Russia’s State Duma and the heads of 11 regions will also be elected to office. 

Additionally, this year will be the first where residents of the Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine will be allowed to take part. 

Moscow has tightened its grip on the remaining anti-war political opposition ahead of the vote, banning minority party Yabloko from participating based on accusations of funding from abroad and copyright infringement.

Now, the election comes at a fraught time for the Kremlin as progress on the battlefield has stalled and Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign on oil and gas infrastructure has triggered nationwide fuel shortages. 

Falling recruitment numbers and heavy battlefield losses have also fuelled speculation the Kremlin will be forced to declare a mobilization event following the elections to bolster its ranks. 

Moscow has vehemently denied the claims as it did prior to the previous partial mobilization in 2022, branding them as deliberate fabrications. 

Despite this, there are few options available to Moscow and, while a mobilization event may not come straight after the elections, it is looking increasingly likely that Russia will resort to such a measure in preparation for a spring offensive in 2027.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Michael Archer, Alex Moore, Jess Fino, and James Morgan. Our interview featured editor Ahmed Namatalla and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2026 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe