This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is Oct. 15, 2026.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got missile attacks in Saudi Arabia, nationwide protests in France and Pakistan, a trade pact between India and New Zealand, and striking workers in Senegal.
You can also read about these stories and more in our monthly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Saudi Arabia attacks
Interview featuring Ahmed Namatalla
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll check in on the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Middle East and Africa coverage, Ahmed Namatalla.
JIMMY: Hello, Ahmed.
AHMED: Hello, Jimmy.
JIMMY: Thanks for your time today. I know you've got a lot to cover, so let's just jump right in. So, first, can you give us a bit of a recap on the situation between the Saudis and the Houthis?
AHMED: We are seeing a big escalation in the fighting between the two sides. So, what started with Saudi Arabia over the summer bombing Sanaa Airport as a plane transporting Iranian officials was about to land there, has since escalated to all-out daily exchange of attacks between these two sides. Saudi Arabia is backing Yemeni government forces on the ground, trying to take Houthi territory, and their stated claim is to take the capital Sanaa back. They appear nowhere close to doing that. Houthis, meanwhile, have expanded their reach to take control of the Bab and Mendab Strait, which is the southern entrance to the Red Sea. They have since lost some of that territory, but not much of it. That area remains highly risky to travel through. The Houthis then expanded their attacks and started to do something that we really have not seen a lot of before, which is while they fight the Saudi-backed Yemeni forces on the ground inside Yemen, they've started attacking Saudi Arabian infrastructure, and quite heavily. They – last week they attacked Riyadh's airport. Riyadh is the capital of Saudi Arabia, among its busiest airports, and these attacks came to the tune of three over the course of four days. One of which got proved to be the deadliest inside the kingdom in over a decade, killing 12 people and injuring more than 300. They've attacked other airports as well, Dammam's airport. Right now, Riyadh's airport has been shut down. Most incoming and outgoing international flights are going through Jeddah's airport, which was already a busy one. The Houthis have made it clear that as long as Saudi Arabia and its Yemeni allies on the ground continue to attack them, they will attack Saudi Arabia, and they have been specific about their targets, naming transportation and energy infrastructure, and excluding, they said, airports that serve the two Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina; so that would include Jeddah's airport.
JIMMY: And what about the latest? Have you seen any new developments?
AHMED: What's been interesting in all of this is Saudi Arabia's reaction to this offensive. They really have chosen to maintain the status quo: try to project normalcy as much as possible. They have chosen to move forward and are, in fact, holding a major energy conference in Riyadh this week, coinciding with another economic conference in the capital city that's come under attack. This, despite getting repeated warnings of attacks on the city and having some strikes impact residential neighborhoods. They continue to show this footage of damage, and they continue to report people getting injured on the ground, but still want to maintain that everything is fine and people should go about their daily lives. I should note that I have seen two clips of government officials receiving alert warnings during these conferences and bragging about ignoring them and receiving applause from the audience for doing so. And so, it's a real catch 22 for them here. If they don't do anything and try to keep people calm, they risk people getting hurt. But if they do take the necessary measures, and that would include more transparency about incoming attacks and the damage that's being reported on the ground, they risk losing the image that they have spent years building, one of that the kingdom's safe, that it's open for investment. And it's something that, for the time being, they are – they seem unwilling to want to risk during this war.
JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to all this?
AHMED: We've seen some criticism of how Saudi Arabia is handling this, mainly in international press reports and opinion columns. We've seen, though, which should be noted is, little tangible support from Saudi Arabia's historic military allies. We've seen nothing from the United States in terms of support. We've seen President Trump comment on this conflict, saying and appearing to threaten the Houthis with military action, but only after the elections on November 3. We've seen nothing from Egypt, a country which Saudi Arabia spent billions propping up the government there and keeping it from economic collapse. And these are two heavily armed countries, that could step in if they wanted to, but we've seen nothing from them. We've seen nothing from Pakistan and Turkey, which just weeks ago signed a formal agreement of mutual defense with Saudi Arabia, and they've made announcements that they're going to help. But again, nothing. And so, for the time being, we're seeing Saudi Arabia carry on this fight alone, apparently. It says that it has a military coalition, but we have no idea who the members are, and we have no idea what their contributions are. The United Kingdom has, you know, made a gesture of sending a refueling tanker to Saudi Arabia, saying that it's helping defensive operations, but that's about it. And right now, Saudi Arabia continues to expand its bombing of Yemen. I want to remind that they carried on an extensive bombing campaign in Yemen for seven years that yielded no results and actually resulted in the Houthis gaining more ground. Meanwhile, they continue to be attacked on a daily basis, and it's unclear how this conflict resolves in light of the unwillingness of either side to back down.
JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?
AHMED: Well, there's a link here, I think, that cannot be ignored, and that is the elections that are coming up in the United States and also in Israel. Those two countries going into elections – Israel later this month and the United States in early November – have seemingly made the choice to refrain from aggressive military attacks in the region, something that they have done for the better part of the past year: assassinating Iran's leader, killing Hezbollah's leaders, carrying out massive killings in the Gaza Strip. They appear to have made the choice to stay out of this for now, and I think we should be watching for how the Houthis and, by extension, Iran, which backs them, how aggressive they decide to become over the next few weeks, knowing that the prospect of retaliation is reduced. And then, following the elections and depending on their results, how these two military superpowers, the United States and Israel, decide to reengage, if they do, in the region and in this specific conflict.
JIMMY: Well, Ahmed, we'll have to pause there for today. But as usual, thanks so much for your time and for keeping such a close eye on the region for us. Appreciate you.
AHMED: Thank you, Jimmy.
Nationwide protests in France over fuel costs
Information compiled by Michael Archer
JIMMY: Nationwide protests over rising fuel prices are expected across France on Saturday.
The call for protests has been shared thousands of times on social media, indicating widespread support and a potentially large turnout.
Groups involved in ongoing student protests across France have also expressed interest in joining the demonstrations.
The country has been rocked by a large wave of protests led by high school students since late September, leading to hundreds of arrests and widespread unrest.
Now, if the fuel protests draw large crowds, widespread disruptions to roads and public transportation are expected.
The demonstrations come as fuel prices in France have reached record highs, surpassing the previous peak in June 2022.
Economic growth has also slowed significantly as the cost of living continues to rise.
Pakistan nationwide farmers protest
Information compiled by Hua Hsieh
JIMMY: Nationwide protests by farmers in Pakistan are expected on Sunday.
The Pakistan Kissan Rabita Committee, a federation representing 36 farmer groups, has called for demonstrations over rising production costs and unstable crop prices.
The farmer groups are calling for the abolition of the private procurement system of wheat and restoration of state purchasing.
They say allowing the private sector to import cheaper crops from other countries has forced local farmers to sell their crops at lower prices, leading to major losses.
Farmers are also demanding the government to fix the minimum support price of wheat and sugarcane and to announce the rate before planting begins so they can make informed decisions.
Now, while specific protest plans have not been announced, previous demonstrations have involved farmers using agricultural machinery to block major highways and holding sit-ins near government buildings.
Major agricultural cities in Punjab, where much of Pakistan's wheat and sugarcane are produced, could see large demonstrations and increased security measures.
Disruptions to major roads and transportation routes are possible.
India-NZ free trade pact comes into force
Information compiled by Hua Hsieh
JIMMY: A free trade agreement between India and New Zealand will take effect on Tuesday.
Under the deal, tariffs on about 95 percent of New Zealand's exports to India will be reduced or eliminated, while all Indian exports to New Zealand will be duty-free.
India has excluded dairy and some agricultural products from the agreement to protect its farming sector.
New Zealand has also agreed to invest $20 billion in India over the next 15 years and ease travel and work restrictions for students and workers.
Leaders of both countries say they expect the agreement to help double trade between India and New Zealand by 2030.
The deal comes as India looks to diversify its export markets amid rising fuel costs, shipping disruptions linked to the war in Iran and shifting U.S. policies.
Those include new U.S. tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, including India.
New Zealand is also looking to diversify its trade and reduce its reliance on China, its largest trading partner.
Senegal 72-hour strike
Information compiled by James Morgan
JIMMY: A nationwide general strike in Senegal is expected to begin on Wednesday.
The Trade Union Front for the Defense of Workers, representing 12 union federations, has called for the three-day strike amid an ongoing dispute with the government over working conditions.
Workers are demanding permanent contracts after two years of fixed-term contract work.
They also want the reinstatement of about 3,000 workers who lost their jobs at public agencies and companies.
Unions are also calling on the government to address rising prices for basic necessities and fuel.
So far, government officials have shown little sign of meeting those demands.
Now, if the strike draws widespread participation, major disruptions to public services are expected, including transportation, courts and hospitals.
A previous 24-hour strike in July disrupted those services, with unions reporting that more than 75 percent of workers participated nationwide.
The upcoming strike would be the longest yet and could also lead to demonstrations, particularly in the capital, Dakar.
Previous strike-related protests this year have remained peaceful, and the risk of further unrest remains low.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Michael Archer, Hua Hsieh, and James Morgan. Our interview featured editor Ahmed Namatalla and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe
