This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 22, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got a federal takeover in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, calls for more nationwide protests in France, a presidential election in Brazil, and parliamentary elections in Serbia and Israel. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our monthly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Emergency and governor rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Interview featuring Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the federal takeover in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Awais Ahmad.

JIMMY: Hello, Awais.

AWAIS: Hi, Jimmy. Thanks for having me.

JIMMY: Thanks for your time today. There's been some rather important news coming out of Northwest Pakistan recently, and I'm hoping you can get us all caught up on it. So, what exactly is going on?

AWAIS: Yeah. So on October 11th, Pakistan's federal government imposed an emergency and governor's rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, effectively, you know, removing the provincial government from power – a government that was led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan's PTI party. It is essentially a federal takeover of the province, like you mentioned, with Islamabad assuming control over the provincial administration at a time of both escalating militant violence and this, sort of like, deepening political confrontation with PTI. Now the government's justification for this is that there has been increasingly a deteriorating security situation in the province, particularly due to a resurgence of attacks by militants belonging to the Pakistani Taliban, or the TTP, and Islamabad has also repeatedly accused the provincial government of a lack of cooperation on counterterrorism efforts. And you know, these security concerns, they're very real. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been at the center of Pakistan's fight against militancy for decades, particularly in the tribal districts along the border with Afghanistan, and this resurgence of militant attacks has really come about since the Afghan Taliban returned to power in 2021. Pakistan has, you know, repeatedly accused Afghanistan of providing a safe sanctuary to these militants in Afghanistan to get training and whatnot. But I think it's important to sort of look at what's happened in the context of, sort of, this political battle with PTI. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been governed by PTI since 2013, and it's, sort of, really the last stronghold that the party has of institutional power in the entire country. And as we know, Imran Khan has been jailed since 2023, and the province has, sort of like, become a really important base for the party to organize protests and mobilize supporters. So I think the timing here is really interesting, right? Because the emergency has come just a week after PTI launched a long march towards Islamabad to demand the release of Imran Khan. The march began in early October. It was planned for a lot earlier in September, but there were negotiations between the government and PTI, which fell apart. And the march, you know, was in part led also by the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwanwa, who belonged to the PTI party. So you know, PTI has sort of become a thorn in the side of like federal government, particularly because it it has such good ability to, sort of, mobilize these large numbers of supporters, despite the fact that Imran Khan is in jail. And we've seen similar demonstrations in the past, like most notably in November 2024, when thousands of PTI supporters, you know, marched towards Islamabad, and it resulted in violent clashes with security forces and mass arrests and this, like, giant, like, crackdown on protesters. This time before the long march even started, or was just when it was being announced, the government had already, you know, set up containers and blocked off entry points to Islamabad. So there's already a history of these marches, like you know, escalating into significant unrest. And in this case, you had the provincial government, or the head of the provincial government itself, or himself, sort of, you know, leading and mobilizing protesters. So I think it's interesting that just a week after the long march was announced, the federal government imposed this emergency and governor's rule. So now, in terms of what that actually means, Pakistan's constitution allows the federal government to invoke emergency powers, sort of in response to serious security threats. But the governor's rule specifically goes a step further. It allows Islamabad to assume control over the provincial administration altogether. So we're not just talking about, you know, additional troops or heightened security. We're talking about federal government, you know, effectively taking control of a province that was governed by its principal political opposition.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

AWAIS: Yeah. So the most immediate development is that the central government has moved pretty quickly to consolidate control of the province. Governor Faisal Karim Kundi, who's affiliated with Pakistan People's Party, an ally of the federal government, is now overseeing the province with the help of an 11-member advisory council. The parliament has also approved this intervention despite opposition from PTI lawmakers, and we've also seen detention of former chief minister and other PTI officials. But I think one of the more significant developments on the security side is the creation of separate administrative arrangement for 12 districts. These districts, that are primarily along the Afghan border, and a lot of the militant sort of activity, is concentrated in these areas. There's sort of an important historical context to this as well. Many of these districts were previously part of Federally Administrative Tribal Areas, also known as FATA. These were governed under a separate administrative system dating back to the British colonial rule. These territories were merged into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2018. So now you – you know, there's kind of a certain irony that the federal government now is creating a separate administrative structure for many of these same districts. It's not exactly a formal reversal of the merger, but it does kind of raise questions about provincial autonomy and, you know, the future of those reforms. In terms of counterterrorism, the government has sort of outlined plans to improve coordination between the military, police, and civilian authorities. This could mean, you know, more raids and security deployments, but I wouldn't necessarily interpret this as the beginning of another large-scale military offensive. The most obvious change, at least for now, is going to be who's making the decisions, and rather than, you know, what the military is capable of doing. And you – we're also seeing this decision being challenged in the Peshawar High Court. Peshawar is the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It's, sort of, heard challenges to the emergency and governors' rule on October 20th, and there are further, sort of, proceedings also expected in November. So we're kind of seeing both a restructuring of how the province is going to be governed and, sort of, a growing legal dispute over whether the federal government was constitutionally justified to intervene in this way.

JIMMY: What other sort of reactions have you seen from all this?

AWAIS: Well, unsurprisingly, PTI has been very critical of the move. The party has called the move unconstitutional and politically motivated, essentially accusing, you know, the federal government of using the security situation to remove a democratically elected opposition government. And one of the arguments, interestingly, that PTI has made, is that, you know, if the security emergency is concentrated to those 12 districts that the government has outlined, why was governor's rule imposed across the entire province, right? The federal government, in its response, has kind of maintained that the provincial administration was failing to cooperate with counterterrorism efforts. They've accused PTI of resisting military operations, and some have even alleged links between party officials and militant groups. But again, I think it's interesting also because there's the broader debate around how counterterrorism operations should be conducted, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's former tribal areas. These are communities that have experienced decades of militant violence, military offensives. And that has, you know, inevitably led to a lot of displacement and disruption of everyday life. So there is a history of mistrust that exists within the province, and within those areas specifically, when it comes to military operations, particularly these, like sort of, larger-scale offensives. So, I think it's not that people don't want, sort of, you know, a better response to growing militancy in the region, but I think there are valid, sort of, reactions or questions being asked about whether suspending an entire provincial administration is the right move. And also there's just, sort of, the larger constitutional question also about what kind of precedents that this sets for Pakistan's federal system, especially when you have such an interesting sort of dynamic between the federal government being controlled by a different party than a provincial government is.

JIMMY: Well, I know there's quite a few unknowns here, but you know, considering all that you've just mentioned there, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AWAIS: There are two main things really to watch here. I think what happens on the security front is one thing, and then what happens politically. On the security side, the immediate question is whether we're going to see an increase in counterterrorism operations, particularly again in those 12 districts or along the border areas. We could see, like, more targeted raids, arrests, and security deployments. And if operations are gonna, you know, intensify, there's also possibility of further clashes, civilian displacement, and just disruptions to everyday life. But I think it's also, like, worth remembering that the militancy problem in the region is much older than the current confrontation with PTI. They've conducted repeated military campaigns in the region over the past two decades, and militant violence has continued to resurface. And on the sort of political side of things, I think I'd be watching PTI's response very closely. The party's long march, at the moment, has been disrupted, but you know, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa remains one of Imran Khan's, you know, strongest holds, and in terms of, you know, support, and just because the provincial government has been removed doesn't necessarily mean that the support is going to disappear. We're going to see renewed calls of demonstrations, further arrests of PTI leaders, and potentially clashes between protesters and security forces. I think the internet has also been disrupted there significantly. And you know, as we saw in previous PTI marches, it will lead to, you know, major road closures, security crackdowns, and disruptions that could reach well beyond Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, because the party has support nationwide. There's also, what I think is the most interesting thing here, for me personally, is the Afghanistan dimension here, right? Because Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban of supporting TTP militants, and if militant attacks continue, I wonder if the, sort of, the larger implications of this is that we're going to see more border restrictions, diplomatic measures, or even cross-border military action, which we've already kind of seen a resurgence of in the past few weeks. And then finally, something that we can be looking out for is the legal battle that's going to ensue within the Peshawar High Court. Like I said, they're going to continue their proceedings in November, and that could become a significant flashpoint, depending on how the court rules. And finally, I think in the longer term, under Pakistan's constitution, the governor's rule is a temporary measure with an overall limit of six months. So the federal government can't maintain the governor's rule beyond, like, that; it's not an indefinite thing. The emergency can be set indefinitely until somebody chooses to, you know, revoke it or the parliament goes against it. But it's interesting to see if beyond that six months, like, well, what their strategy will be in trying to maintain power. Because after that six months, it goes back to the way that things were before, and the provincial government – the PTI provincial government – regains its power.

JIMMY: Well, Awais, we'll have to pause there for today. But again, thank you so much for your time and for keeping such a close eye on the region for us. Appreciate you.

AWAIS: Of course, thank you so much.

French activists call for new protests nationwide

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: More protests are expected across France on Saturday.

Activists from the Yellow Vests movement are calling for another round of nationwide demonstrations, followed by more protests on Halloween.

The group took part in protests on Oct. 17 that led to widespread looting and vandalism.

While high school students began the current wave of unrest, Yellow Vests protesters are focused on the country's record-high fuel prices.

Travelers across France can expect hundreds of additional roadblocks, metro station closures and suspended bus routes.

Intercity train service was mostly unaffected during previous protests.

Yellow Vests demonstrations are expected to focus on gas stations, refineries and oil depots.

Meanwhile, French Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu has called for limited curfews to control the unrest.

Parts of Paris are now under a nighttime curfew from 11 p.m. until 6 a.m., with police warning the restrictions could remain in place as long as necessary.

At least 3,000 businesses have been affected by damage or looting and the unrest has left damage to dozens of public buildings.

More than 2,400 people were arrested across France this weekend, with more than 150 police officers injured.

Despite the unrest, some major sporting events are expected to go ahead, including an NFL game in Paris on Sunday and a tennis tournament in Lyon.

Now, the French government has allocated an additional €450 million, or about $506 million, in fuel subsidies for frequent drivers.

The prime minister has also announced a five-part plan to address the demands of high school students.

Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron has backed Interior Minister Laurent Nunez despite calls for his resignation.

Macron, as you may recall, is set to leave office after presidential elections in spring.

Recent polls favor Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party, while far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon and his France Unbowed party have also gained support.

Melenchon, however, continues to trail Le Pen in direct polling matchups.

Brazil presidential runoff election

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Brazil's presidential election will head to a second round of voting on Sunday.

Current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, advanced after neither candidate secured the 50 percent needed to win the first round.

Bolsonaro finished ahead with 47 percent of the vote, despite polls suggesting Lula da Silva was leading.

Now, tensions are expected to rise ahead of the runoff election, with both candidates working to gain support from undecided voters.

Thousands of students have already protested in Rio de Janeiro against the possibility of another Bolsonaro presidency.

Meanwhile, security forces are being deployed across the country to protect polling stations and election officials.

Still, authorities have rejected online claims of an imminent attack.

Flavio Bolsonaro has indicated he would seek changes to Brazil's Constitution if elected, though he has not provided details.

And while he received about 2.2 million votes more than Lula da Silva in the first round, about 33 million people did not vote. 

Thus, it remains unclear who will win the election.

Serbian parliamentary elections

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Serbia will hold snap parliamentary elections on Sunday.

That, following nearly two years of anti-government protests.

President Aleksandar Vucic dissolved parliament in September amid growing pressure from protesters calling for political change.

Vucic has held power as either president or prime minister for the past 12 years and has said he’ll run for prime minister in the upcoming election.

The decision has angered protesters who have been demonstrating since a railway station roof collapse killed 16 people in the city of Novi Sad in November 2024.

Protesters have blamed government corruption for the disaster and accused Vucic of trying to remain in power.

Now, demonstrations are expected to intensify around the election, particularly in the capital, Belgrade, and other major cities.

A student-led movement called "Students List-Students Win" has submitted their list of candidates to challenge the ruling Serbian Progressive Party.

Any attempts to prevent opposition candidates from running could lead to further protests.

Meanwhile, Vucic has repeatedly denied responsibility for the railway station collapse and accused the student movement of being part of a Western-backed effort to destabilize Serbia.

He is expected to continue making those claims as the election approaches.

It remains unclear whether his decision to leave the presidency early will ease tensions, with protesters viewing his campaign for prime minister as an attempt to hold on to power.

Israeli parliamentary elections

Information compiled by Jordan Seagrove

JIMMY: Israel will hold parliamentary elections on Tuesday, with protests expected before and after the vote.

The election comes as the current government becomes the first since 1988 to serve a full four-year term.

The vote is largely divided between parties supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and an informal coalition seeking to remove him from power.

Several issues are expected to drive demonstrations, including military service requirements for ultra-Orthodox communities, the government's handling of the Oct. 7 attack and allegations of corruption.

Tensions are also expected to rise ahead of the election, with concerns about political violence.

In late September, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was escorted from an event after someone threw an object at him.

Meanwhile, election day will be a public holiday, though transportation, hospitals, restaurants and factories are expected to operate as usual.

Official results are expected on Nov. 4, with a deadline for appeals on Nov. 18.

Once the results are certified, the party receiving the most votes will be given a mandate to form a government.

However, current polls suggest no bloc is likely to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in Israel's 120-seat parliament.

Parties are given up to 42 days to form a government, and a close election could extend the process to nearly three months.

Until a new government is formed, Netanyahu's administration will remain in place in a caretaker role.

If no party can form a government, another election will be scheduled.

Prior to the current government, Israel had a four-year political crisis that saw five elections for leadership and regular protests.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Owen Bonertz, Jess Fino, James Morgan, and Jordan Seagrove. Our interview featured editor Awais Ahmad and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe