This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 29, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got a concerning surge in cyberattacks, dockworkers striking across Europe and the Mediterranean, Yellow Vest protests in Paris, student protests in Germany, and midterm elections in the U.S. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our monthly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Wave of cyberattacks raises concerns about wider disruptions

Interview featuring Cory Bergman

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent surge in cyberattacks. For more on that, we’ve got a special guest this week: Factal co-founder and Chief Product Officer, Cory Bergman.

JIMMY: Hello, Cory.

CORY: Hey, Jimmy. How are you?

JIMMY: I am well, and I'm glad to finally have you on the podcast – for multiple reasons, really, not the least of which is this pretty concerning situation with cyber attacks and software vulnerabilities. And frankly, I'm hoping you can get us all caught up on it, and you know, what's going on?

CORY: We’ve really seen a spike in vulnerabilities over the past few weeks, so far, but it's been, really, over the past several months, but there seemed to be a tipping point in the last few weeks as some new open source models have become available. And as a result, we have just accelerated the discovery of vulnerabilities, and in many cases, has overwhelming cybersecurity teams who are just trying to keep pace with all the new information that's coming out of them.

JIMMY: Well, what's driving this?

CORY: So there's, in the world of AI models, there's open source, and then there's closed source. And closed-source models are the ones we're most familiar with, so from OpenAI and Anthropic and DeepMind. Open source are models that are typically, not exclusively, but typically, produced out of China. And these models allow developers to go in and adjust the weights to fit different use cases. And in this particular case, the Chinese models have always been a ways behind of the U.S. closed-source frontier models, until recently. They've really begun to catch up. They're not neck and neck, but there's certainly – there's several now in the same class. And to be clear, the models themselves are not weapons for bad actors, but you can – because they're open source, bad actors can take those models, and the word is "abliterate" them, which is a new word, "abliterate," and that means you go in and actually change the weights so that you strip away the guardrails, so that you can ask it to do nefarious tasks for you, and it will actually give you the response, rather than if you were using like Claude or one of the ChatGPT models, it would say, "Nope, I can't do that for you." And so, because of that, these models are now in the hands of bad actors. The abliterated version of these models are in hands of bad actors, and they're able to then start snooping around and looking for vulnerabilities in software and tools that are out there in the open market.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen to all this? You know, how have companies and organizations responded to it?

CORY: It's – everything is just sped up, and that's the challenge, right? Because before you would have hackers would be using tools, but they didn't scale very well. It still sort of depended on how much work the hackers put into it. Now with AI, you can say, hey, spin up, you know, hundreds of agents and go just start looking all over the place for this type of vulnerability. And it just changes the scope and scale of the operation. And so now, just the volume is – for example, in the first half of this year, Google said that vulnerability disclosures have doubled. But they're even admitting that it's hard to even count the ones that are out there. And so it's – the numbers are actually potentially much higher. And so for cybersecurity teams, they used to be – work, you know, work on kind of a normal cadence. You'd find that there'd be a vulnerability somewhere, then you'd have to go prioritize which ones you're going to fix, and then you patch it. Now it's just like there – you see it hit, and you have to patch it as quickly as you can because not only the vulnerability is coming out faster, but hackers can respond to them faster and actually exploit those vulnerabilities. And so you have to fix them as quickly as you can. So it's just become a – more of a real time environment for companies to be able to keep pace with this just AI-fueled, you know, cybersecurity world that we're now in.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, you know, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next? You know, what's this mean for physical security teams, and you know, are companies using the same technology against the hackers?

CORY: Right, so, the counter to this for cybersecurity teams, other than than being – getting faster and being able to triage and respond – is to use the latest models as ways to pressure test your own technology to proactively patch things before you actually have a vulnerability discovered by a bad actor. And so, you know, there's the latest models from the frontier companies, they have functionality that allows you to run your own technology stack through them to identify potential weak points that you can – that you can fix. And so that is – that's an area that many teams are doing and working on as fast as they can. What it means for physical security teams, you know, I think, you know, in the world of security, cybersecurity always gets more resources, and I think it's really going to be the case now where they're going to get, and are getting even more, attention, even more resources. And so there's, you know – physical security certainly is different than cybersecurity from an intelligence and threat detection standpoint. However, there's lots of overlap where physical security teams can be a resource to their folks over in cyber, and it's certainly a good time to build those collaboration pathways and to be good friends with your cybersecurity folks because then that helps justify your resources as well and not be just completely, you know, passed over by a cybersecurity team that's asking for every possible resource – so, you know, everything from the physical impacts of cybersecurity hacks, to insider threat and risk, to, you know, political instability and backlash targeting your company, to impersonation of your, you know, executives. And so there's lots of different things that AI is enabling that certainly has a physical security component, and by being more involved there, physical security teams will stay more top of mind in the company.

JIMMY: Well, Cory, we'll have to pause there for today. But again, thank you so much for your time today, and thanks for getting us caught up on such an important story. Appreciate you.

CORY: Thanks for having me on, appreciate it.

Ports for Peace actions

Information compiled by Clara Ip Wai Nam

JIMMY: Dockworkers across Europe and the Mediterranean are preparing to strike and protest tomorrow.

Unions representing workers at more than 40 ports are taking part in the campaign, opposing the transport of military supplies through commercial ports.

Workers are also demanding better pay, working conditions and job security.

Now, if the strikes go ahead, cargo handling and port operations could be disrupted across several countries.

However, not all unions have confirmed full work stoppages, and the scale of disruption remains unclear.

The action also coincides with a nationwide general strike in Italy, which includes rail, air and road transport.

That could cause further disruptions to freight and passenger services.

Similar strikes and protests took place in early February at around 21 ports across Europe and the Mediterranean, disrupting some shipping operations in the process.

Paris Yellow Vest protests

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Organizers with France’s Yellow Vest movement are asking authorities to allow the group to march in central Paris on Saturday.

Activists want to march from the Place de la Bastille to Place de la Concorde, saying the route would give the group greater visibility.

The group has threatened to file a complaint for infringement of the freedom to demonstrate if authorities refuse to allow the protest.

Now, if approved, the march would follow two weekends of major protests across France over the rising cost of living.

Hundreds of thousands of people took part in the student-led demonstrations, which led to clashes with police, curfews and other security measures in several cities.

Protests on Oct. 17 were particularly tense, with violence and vandalism leading to around 1,200 arrests and injuries to 150 law enforcement officers.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said that he expects Oct. 31 to be “another risky Saturday,” though he said demonstrations would take place outside city centers to maintain public order.

Further demonstrations are possible on Nov. 5, when unions have called for a general strike.

Germany student protests

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Student-led protests are planned across Germany on Saturday.

A youth movement called “Gen Z steht auf”, or, “Gen Z Stands Up”, has called for demonstrations in 21 cities, including Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Frankfurt and Munich.

Protesters are demanding improvements to education, relief from the rising cost of living and an end to conscription.

The demonstrations are part of a broader wave of student-led protests across Europe, with young people raising concerns about living costs and access to jobs.

Now, while organizers say the protests will be peaceful, German police have voiced concerns that radicalized individuals may attempt to infiltrate the protests and use them as a platform.

Police plan to increase their presence in affected cities to prevent unrest.

Disruptions to local business and transportation, with sporadic violence also possible.

There are also concerns that heavy-handed police tactics could lead to further clashes.

Similar protests in France and Italy have led to unrest, particularly in France, where authorities have imposed curfews in some areas following the violence, looting and vandalism.

Protesters across Europe are calling for greater investment in education, lower living costs and action on climate change.

US midterm elections

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Voters across the United States will head to the polls on Tuesday for this year’s midterm elections.

Democrats are hoping to gain four seats in the House of Representatives and three in the Senate to take control of both chambers.

Analysts expect both goals to be within reach.

Now, if Democrats win control of Congress, they have promised to focus on corruption, with investigations into President Donald Trump expected.

Voters will also choose more than 6,100 state lawmakers across 46 states, potentially shifting political control in several state legislatures.

Meanwhile, top Democrats are preparing for the possibility that Trump could try to interfere with voting, as he continues to claim he won the 2020 presidential election.

The elections come as Republicans face growing concerns over the economy, including slowing job growth and rising unemployment and mortgage rates.

Polling suggests voters favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress, amid frustration over the economy, foreign policy and gas prices.

Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in the midterm elections.

Trump’s approval rating also fell to a historic low of 32 percent in September – a level he carried into October.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Clara Ip Wai Nam, Theresa Seiger, and James Morgan. Our interview featured Cory Bergman, and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe