This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Nov. 5, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got troops from El Salvador in Haiti, an election in New Zealand, a climate summit in Turkey, a far-right Independence Day march in Poland, and a general strike in Spain.  

You can also read about these stories and more in our monthly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Salvadoran troops in Haiti

Interview featuring Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at this situation involving troops from El Salvador in Haiti. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Latin America coverage, Jeff Landset.

JIMMY: Hello, Jeff.

JEFF: Hi, Jimmy. How's it going?

JIMMY: It is good. Glad you're here today. You know, we can jump right into this because I know we're short on time here. But what's going on? You know, can you give us a recap on sort of what the situation is?

JEFF: Well, sure. Yeah, this has obviously gotten very complicated over the past several years, but it kind of all stems back to the assassination of the leader of Haiti in 2021. And since then, gang warfare has essentially taken over, starting in the capital of Port-au-Prince. And progressively over the years, that gang warfare in the territory has been increasing, and they have been moving out of Port-au-Prince and into other areas of the country. Since then, you know, thousands of people have been killed in this gang-related violence. More than a million people have been displaced, and obviously, the situation in Haiti has really not improved in a long time and is, you know, one of the worst places to live as a person in the world right now. Since that time, the United Nations has gotten involved, and they have started sending a Gang Suppression Force to the nation of Haiti using soldiers from several different countries, namely Kenya, but also El Salvador, as we'll be talking about here for the next couple of minutes, which has really turned into a bit of a situation. The reason why we're talking stems back to last month when these gang members attacked some of these troops, including four aviation technicians from El Salvador in an area near Port-au-Prince called Croix-Des-Bouquets. This Gang Suppression Force was there, and the gang members attacked with explosives. The four technicians were apparently kidnapped by gang members and taken hostage. Since then, no group has been officially identified or taken responsibility for this action, but many of the authorities believe that it was the gang members who did it. Since then, the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, has taken a great interest in this and has essentially said that those four people need to be returned to El Salvador unharmed, uninjured. And really, at this point, there isn't any confirmation that they have been harmed or unharmed. And actually, right now, we don't know if they're even alive.

JIMMY: Well, what's the latest? Have there been any new developments?

JEFF: Yeah. So Bukele has sent in troops to the island. At this point, we believe there are about 2,000 Salvadoran troops on the island and in the nation of Haiti. They are apparently working with the Haitian police as well as this Gang Suppression Force, and have already been involved in some encounters with the Haitian gang members. And since then, something pretty unprecedented has happened. One of the leaders of these Haitian gangs sent a letter to the United Nations asking for intervention and mediation. The UN has acknowledged that they have received this letter, but they have also said that the troops from El Salvador are not acting under any operation related to the United Nations, and so they don't really see that they have a place to control these troops. However, they did say that they are calling on everybody in Haiti to act under international law, and at this point, it's unclear if those Salvadoran troops are doing just that.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen going on with this?

JEFF: Well, outside of what the United Nations is saying, and outside of what the president of El Salvador is saying, we have seen that the leader, the current leader of Haiti, has been thankful and appreciative of what Bukele has done by sending these troops in. He says that they are asking for help from El Salvador and that it's being provided. And as for some international reaction, you know, President Trump has apparently gotten involved, by saying that he told Bukele to do what he has to do, in a phone call. However, he didn't say that he was going to give El Salvador any equipment or troops obviously. But he also said that Bukele doesn't need the help. Trump also expressed, you know, the support for El Salvador, but did not confirm if these technicians are still alive. In fact, he suggested that they may already be dead. And in El Salvador, the large majority of the population there approve of this so-called rescue mission in Haiti, as Bukele has a large approval rating.People love him there, and they say that El Salvador's involvement in Haiti is actually making the country look better abroad.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

JEFF: Well, sure, anytime the Salvadoran troops get involved in a confrontation with Haitian gang members, we'll have to look for any sort of civilian casualties or anything that could come back and say that it's against international law. Bukele is obviously known for not caring much about human rights. His massive prisons in El Salvador that he's been running have gotten a lot of condemnation from human rights activists. And so, if he starts to skirt the rules of international law or anything like that in a foreign country, that would be fairly unprecedented.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, as usual, that's where we'll have to pause today. But I won't be surprised if we have to circle back to this topic again in the future. Until then, thanks so much for your time and for getting us up to speed. Appreciate you.

JEFF: No problem. Thank you, Jimmy.

New Zealand election

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Voters in New Zealand will head to the polls on Saturday.

They’ll be electing members of the House of Representatives, with 71 seats decided by local electorates and another 49 through party lists.

Polling suggests neither of the two main parties is likely to win a majority, meaning they may need support from smaller parties to form a government.

The Labour Party is hoping to unseat the current coalition government led by the National Party.

Now, the right-wing populist New Zealand First party, which is part of the current government, will be closely watched. Winning more seats could give it greater influence in a new government.

Labour may seek support from the Green Party, Te Pāti Māori and the centrist Opportunity party, which has recently gained support.

Coalition negotiations are common in New Zealand, and a four-party governing alliance is becoming increasingly likely.

The country holds general elections every three years, unless an early election is called.

Of course, unlike Australia, voting is not mandatory in New Zealand.

Still, more than 100,000 people have registered to vote from overseas, with many saying they are unhappy with the state of politics back home.

COP31 in Turkey

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: A major United Nations climate summit will begin in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday.

The annual Conference of the Parties, known as COP31, will bring together thousands of delegates from around the world through November 20.

It’s an event that will require a major logistical operation to accommodate visitors and keep the event running smoothly

Officials are expecting around 100,000 participants.

Considering the city has a capacity of approximately 600,000 beds, securing hotel rooms is expected to be difficult.

A Turkish government minister has said the summit could generate $2 billion in direct economic activity for Antalya.

Now, local authorities have divided the summit area into separate zones to help manage the crowds.

Traffic restrictions and changes to public transportation schedules are also expected.

The summit comes as rising global temperatures in 2026 have contributed to drought and food insecurity.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East have contributed to instability and disrupted the flow of oil and gas globally.

Transitioning away from fossil fuels towards clean energy has been a contentious topic in recent years and is expected to be discussed at length at the summit.

Poland Independence March

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Tens of thousands of people are expected to take part in a far-right Independence Day march in Warsaw, Poland, on Wednesday.

The annual march, organized by nationalist groups, is one of the country's largest demonstrations.

Participants will gather at Dmowski Roundabout at 2 p.m. local time, with speeches and concerts planned near the National Stadium.

Officials are expecting major road closures, public transportation disruptions and increased security across central Warsaw.

Disruptions are particularly likely along Jerozolimskie Avenue, Poniatowski Bridge and near the National Stadium.

Now, the march has seen counter-protesters and clashes with the police in previous years, and similar unrest is expected this year.

The event has also drawn controversy over extremist displays and confrontations with authorities.

This year's slogan, "Poles should be masters in Poland," focuses on national sovereignty and Polish identity, including opposition to perceived outside influences.

The march has been granted permission to take place annually along its established route through at least 2027.

Spanish general strike

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: A major nationwide strike is expected to take place across Spain on Wednesday.

Several prominent trade unions have called for the strike over concerns about access to housing, fluctuating property prices and evictions.

The strike could cause widespread disruptions, depending on how many workers take part.

Public transportation is expected to be affected across the country, though minimum services will remain available.

At least 12 conferences and other professional events are scheduled for the same day, with more than 100,000 people expected to attend. 

Those events could also face disruptions from the strike and related demonstrations.

The call to action came shortly after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for early general elections at the end of November.

The elections were announced after Spain's congress rejected proposed measures aimed at addressing the housing crisis.

The housing issue has already sparked nationwide protests, including demonstrations following the forced eviction of an 87-year-old woman from her home of more than 70 years in late September.

Now, the economic impact from the strike could also be significant.

Some estimates suggest it could cost Spain's economy between 2 billion and 4.7 billion euros.

For comparison, according to some estimates, the country's last 24-hour nationwide general strike in 2012 cost the economy at least 1 billion euros.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Michael Archer, and Awais Ahmad. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe