This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Nov. 12, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the winter weather outlook for the US, housing protests in Portugal, elections in Cape Verde, leaders from Southeast Asia meeting in the Philippines, and a truckers strike in Peru. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our monthly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

US winter weather outlook

Interview featuring Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we'll take a look at the flooding that’s recently impacted parts of the southern US and the winter weather outlook ahead. For more on that I’ve got Factal Senior Editor Joe Veyera.

JIMMY: Hello, Joe.

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. Now, I'm not a meteorologist, but I have read a lot of forecasts.

JIMMY: Well, that's good. Just think of this as an afternoon quiz. Let's jump right into it. Just tell us what's happened. What's been going on?

JOE: Heavy rainfall has really battered the Southwest U.S. in particular in recent weeks, with some areas seeing a month's worth of rainfall over the course of just a few days. So, parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah have really borne the brunt of this, and that's prompted widespread evacuations and scenes of water rescues across those states. A couple of examples I want to get into in particular: Pagosa Springs, Colorado, saw hundreds of homes and many roads damaged by back-to-back floods, three people were killed in Globe, Arizona, in flooding in late September, and the damage to infrastructure in New Mexico alone was estimated by the governor at hundreds of millions of dollars. So it's been widespread and it's been catastrophic. Now, it hasn't just been the Southwest either. Florida saw historic flooding along its Space Coast in recent weeks, including two people killed in Palm Bay. So across the southern U.S., we've already seen significant rainfall and the damage that comes with that.

JIMMY: Well, what about the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

JOE: Yeah. So the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its U.S. winter outlook last month. That covers December, January, and February, and they're forecasting wetter conditions for the southern U.S. And that's after all of the flooding we've already seen there. Now this is because of a strong or “super” El Nino – that's a declaration we're expecting to hear from the Climate Prediction Center as you're listening to this podcast, if not sooner. Now, what this means is that the position of the Pacific jet stream has shifted down over North America. Now, just because there's a strong El Nino, that's no guarantee that there will be more frequent or more severe storms, just the conditions are in place for that to occur.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen to all this so far?

JOE: Well, we've already talked about the damage that we've seen and kind of those impacts of the flooding, but there are some potential positives, silver linings when it comes to severe weather like this. The water level of Lake Powell, which is the U.S.'s second-largest reservoir, rose more than 20 feet from its low in mid-September. Now that sounds great, but the water level is still lower than it was at this time last year. So that gives you an idea of how severe the drought conditions have been over the past, you know, year to be at that point. Meanwhile, some water use restrictions have been lifted in some areas in places like Pagosa Springs, where before this heavy rainfall there were those kind of restrictions in place. Now they don't have to worry about that. But the snowfall last winter was particularly underwhelming. So really, any heavy rainfall that we can get would be a positive.

JIMMY: Well, you know, looking forward, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

JOE: Well, knowing what we know about the forecast, we're just going to have to see how that plays out. But for more tangible impacts, a couple of things that we're going to want to look for is one: these areas that have already experienced this significant flooding, will they get further heavy rainfall? And if so, what is that going to do to the ongoing recovery efforts in those places? And secondly, I talked a little bit about drought conditions. Will the coming months provide any more relief on that front before we get into the spring? Last year, the heavy autumn rainfall that we saw didn't translate into heavy snowfall over the winter, and that led us to this summer's water restrictions in states that are reliant on the Colorado River. So, will it be a repeat of 2025 into early 2026, or will the conditions be more favorable to heavy snowfall, which leads to a greater snowpack and hopefully fewer drought conditions?

JIMMY: Well, Joe, that's where we'll pause for today. But I'm sure we'll be talking about U.S. weather again at some point in the weeks and months ahead. Until then, thanks so much for your time and for keeping us plugged in. Appreciate you.

JOE: Anytime.

Portugal housing protests

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Nationwide protests are planned in Portugal on Saturday.

The polls come ahead of a final vote on the government’s 2027 budget.

Demonstrators have been protesting for several weeks as the parliament debates controversial measures to address the country’s housing crisis.

High rents and low salaries have made it increasingly difficult for young people to afford housing in major cities.

Now, the government is proposing measures that would allow landlords to evict tenants after just two months of missed rent and remove rent limits for new contracts.

The proposals have faced heavy criticism, with demonstrations taking place in several cities, mainly Lisbon and Porto.

Police have responded with force, leading to more protests and demonstrators camping overnight in public squares.

And while protests have been peaceful for the most part, tensions have been rising between demonstrators, police and politicians.

There are also concerns that some groups may infiltrate the marches to create more chaos.

Demonstrators are now demanding answers from the government over the police response, including the forced removal of tents.

Prime Minister Luis Montenegro and Interior Minister Luis Neves have faced heavy criticism over their handling of the protests, while President António José Seguro has been criticized for remaining silent.

As for Saturday, a large police presence is expected in several cities during the nationwide protests.

Meanwhile, several strikes are also planned for November, including a public sector strike on Nov. 20.

That comes just days before the final budget vote on Nov. 24.

Cape Verde presidential elections

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Cape Verde will hold presidential elections on Sunday, just months after the African island nation’s general elections.

Six candidates are running, including incumbent President José Maria Neves and former Justice Minister Joana Rosa.

Neves is backed by the African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde, which won the recent general elections, while Rosa is supported by the Movement for Democracy party.

Four independent candidates are also running, including Gilson Alves, Casimiro Pina, Antero Tavares and Loisito Sousa.

If reelected, Neves has pledged to focus on creating more opportunities for people to stay in the country.

He also wants to bring back talent from Cape Verdeans living abroad.

That comes as the country deals with a strong exodus of people, with more Cape Verdeans living overseas than on the islands themselves.

Elections in Cape Verde are usually peaceful, with no reports of unrest during the general elections in May.

The country’s electoral commission has called for a “civic, transparent campaign” focused on constructive debate.

ASEAN summit

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: The Philippines will host a major Southeast Asian summit in Metro Manila starting Monday.

Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will gather for the summit, with U.S. President Donald Trump also expected to attend.

Authorities have announced major security measures in the Pasay City area of Metro Manila, where the summit will take place.

In fact, a partial lockdown began on Oct. 24, banning public activities and outdoor gatherings near the Philippine International Convention Center.

That was expanded into a full lockdown on Nov. 7, with several roads in the area expected to remain closed until Nov. 20.

Officials have also warned of possible flight disruptions as delegates arrive, with more than 100 flight cancellations possible.

Meanwhile, protests are expected despite restrictions around the summit venue.

Philippine authorities have confirmed Trump's attendance, though details of his visit remain unclear.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also said leaders from Japan, Australia, India and the United States are expected to meet on the sidelines of the summit.

That comes as a U.S.-led initiative known as Pax Silica has faced opposition in the Philippines.

The initiative aims to build an industrial hub in the country, raising concerns over environmental impacts and the possible displacement of local communities.

Peru national truckers strike

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: A major truckers' strike is planned in Peru starting Monday.

The country's heavy transport union has called for a three-day strike over rising fuel prices and growing competition from unregulated transport operators.

Organizers say up to 20,000 freight carriers could take part in Lima and other major cities across the country.

Workers are demanding government subsidies to help cover rising fuel costs, new laws to curb informal, unregulated transport operations and stronger protections for drivers.

Union leaders say fuel prices have increased because of the war in Iran, while growing competition and insecurity have put more pressure on the transport industry.

More than 160 attacks on transport workers have been reported in Lima so far this year, contributing to a shortage of drivers.

While the government has taken steps to improve security, unions say more needs to be done to protect workers.

Now, if the strike goes ahead, major disruptions to supply chains are expected across Peru.

That could delay deliveries, lead to shortages in supermarkets and affect goods crossing the country's borders.

Still, it remains unclear whether the strike will take place, with union leaders waiting for the Transport Ministry to begin negotiations.

An agreement between the government and unions could lead to the strike being called off.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Jess Fino, Vivian Wang, and James Morgan. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe